Time
Last week I was going to discuss how time, or more specifically, months, are not really as important as anyone might make out that they. When you boil it all down the only figures that ever really matter is what you started with an what you have now. A service has 10 winning months in a row - that's great, that means you should have a lot more than when you started 10 months ago.
I suppose another factor of time is how much time do you give a losing service?
Depending on what has gone before and if any trends of bad months can be identified (April is a notably tough one for most). I would generally say a drawdown of 70-80% of the advised bank, or 3 losing months on the spin - note, +2 doesn't really count as a good month, but it could mean to observe for a bit longer.
When is the right time to join?
I tried something different a month or two back when Hanbury was having a real poor spell. Realise that it is sort of natural with the high odds to have longer losing runs but even the places weren't happening. So i stuck out an email saying now is probably the best time to join. We always market after a winner or during a good spell, it's natural to shout about it, but when people say 'buy the dip' about Bitcoin - there's method to the madness.
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There is one final thing I want to touch on this Sunday - Cheltenham.
longer term bettors will know by now your inboxes are already being littered with ‘ultimate Cheltenham betting tips’ offers, guides, whatever else.
I got an email just yesterday advising a tipster that made 26 points last year at the festival.
This means nothing, absolutely nothing at all.
You can have a great festival one year and a terrible one the next.
You really don’t need to purchase anything.
It’s a festival and it’s a spectacle to watch. There’s only really the handicaps worth getting involved with at best. And there’s plenty of information out there freely available at your fingertips.
Those that like stats and trends can look at gaultstats or thestatsdontlie.
The racing post offer trends also.
It's all out there, free.
Hanbury racing - one of our very best tipsters has been writing articles for Oddschecker. Those are available via the tips section in the Cheltenham part of the oddschecker website.
I’ve got a couple of guides - if you want them just ping me an email im happy to send.
I begrudge buying opinions on the biggest festival of the year that most have the same opinions on the big races anyway.
I am for this week out of time..
Enjoy Your Sunday.