📍BANGOR DEE

 

• 12.30 DO IT FOR THY SEN 5/1 (1pt)

Kerry Lee’s horse was a steady improver chasing early this year and landed back to back wins over 2m4f on his last two starts back in May. The form of those reads very well in today’s context and with the booking of red hot jockey Jamie Moore catching the eye, there’s reason to believe she’s got this one fit enough for a winning chance.

Though the chasing debutantes have scope, I think If showing it’s best first time up, our selection could prove a cut above this lot at this stage. 

 

• 1.30 CAPTAIN TOMMY 7/1 NAP (1.5pt x EW) 

I know what you’re thinking “who in gods name choose A big field 3m contest, packed with talent and potential improvers, to pick a NAP?!” 

Well hear me out..

This looks like a good bit of placing by trainer David Bridgewater considering our selection will be in receipt of weight from the whole field and happens to be 1 of only 2  with a recent run under its belt - With this testing trip, that could go along way. ‘Tommy has form figures of 2241 in 3m handicaps on good ground and his 2 runs over course and distance have yielded 2 second places, both behind smart sorts. 

- The plot: 

In 2020 he was with H.Whittington and on his seasonal end and start races ran 2 races over insufficient trips which look like workouts/prep runs, both over 2m4f and 2m5f, before being up upped to his proper trip (3m) and coming a 1 length 2nd to Man of The Mountain no less! - Coincidentally over this course and distance. 

4 runs later MOTM went on to win the C1 Grade 2 Ballymore Silver Trophy at Cheltenham in April of this year. 

This season it’s the same trick, different trainer.. has been ran over 2m4f the last twice, the latest his seasonal reappearance and now steps back up to his proper distance at Bangor Dee in what looks a very hot race... Deja Vu??

 

As I eluded to there are plenty of dangers in here; Snow Leopardess and Falcao Blitz both have some very strong form to their name and the latter could well improve for stepping up in trip, but it’s 

• CANELO 10/1 (0.5pt x EW) who would rate my second pick and I can’t help but having a cover bet on at the prices. 

Alan King has started to show his hand of late and it’s pretty strong.. Canelo won this very race last year then went on to beat Snow Leopardess in a G3.. the likelihood is he will have been targeted again. 

My only concern is he needed the run on reappearance last year and was since a faller in the Grand National.. if none the worse and fit enough, will likely be right there with our NAP at the run in.

⚠️ Having 2 in a race isn’t ideal but in these circumstances I think it’s prudent and with extra places on offer I would certainly expect to be seeing some place returns at the very least. 

 

📍EXETER

 

• 1.40 - LORD ACCORD 9/4 (1pt)  : 

The manner in which Neil Mullhollands charge won last time was quite impressive for a chasing debut, he looks a natural over the jumps and showed a good attitude to rally having been headed and power down the run in. A 3lb rise for that win looks quite generous, with further improvement likely and the extra yardage to play to his strengths.

 

Richard Patrick retains the ride and while he gives weight away to whole field, I can see him putting his experience to use and proving far too resilient for the chasing debutantes in the field.. albeit plenty of them come with scope. 

 

• 2.40 - COCONUT SPLASH 6/4 (2pts) : 

The Class Act in this field Evan Williams gelding has form figures of 322 since sent chasing and some very strong form in those lines, not least his latest outing a 3length second to the Henderson Gold Cup hope Chantry House back in February. 

The form of that has been duly boosted with Chantry winning her listed match easily at 2nd and the third that day running a nice second place at Perth recently. 

If running to anything like the form she showed early in the year, should be much too good for this field and break her chasing virginity in style. 

 

 

📍 KEMPTON 

• 6.30 SUANNI 17/2 (0.5pt x EW) - This looks an open event and I’m taking a chance on Daryl Holland’s horse. 

The colt looked very good when winning at Bath back in September and the form of that race has been working out nicely. 

His latest effort can be easily forgiven on account of the soft ground at Haydock and this colt out of Lethal Force will not only relish returning to a sound surface, but may well rate even higher on the AW as his progeny often tend to. 

David Probert picks the ride back up having partnered him to his breakthrough win and is currently striking at 21%. 

 

• 8.00 FIRST CHARGE 3/1 (1pt) 

Hollie Doyle’s ride in the last looks to have a good chance to bring up a quick hat trick having won both starts since upped to the 2m distance, both of those were on the AW. 

His tendency to break slowly and only just go enough to win could mean he’s further ahead than the ‘capper can mark him and even the bare form stands up pretty well in this field.. with the potential for further improvement on the cards and Hollie taking the ride for the first time, I think 3/1 looks quite tasty. 

 

Best of luck.