THE BETTING STRATEGY

Year to date: +56.89 points

Friday 12 November 2021

How impressive was that? I did say in my write-up yesterday that I thought he was something special and when A Different Kind Won 1.3 yesterday, he certainly proved he was. He absolutely sluiced home and I shall keep this one on my list of horses to back because I do think he is top class. Just a pity the price was so miserable!

PROFIT OF 0.29 pointS

All Selections are settled to Betfair SP

12.50 Newcastle

Pivoine                            1 point win

Nicholas T                      0.5 points ew

5.30 Kempton

First Officer                   1 point win

Analysis

12.50 Newcastle

I’m going to play two-handed in this one. Pivoine is a winner of seven races from 1m to 1m 3f including 2 wins on Polytrack. He was beaten 3 1/2l by Aramaic when second of 5 at 6-1 on his latest outing at York over 1m 2f (good to firm) in September. After a short break, he should really be winning this, but I don’t discount Nicholas T. He has some very good form to his name and is a winner of 11 races from 1m to 2m including 2 wins on the all-weather. He was beaten 19l behind Trueshan at 200-1 when seventh of 10 on his latest outing in the Group 2 Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup at Ascot over 2m (good to soft) last month. He has won at Newcastle and York this season and this is more his level than at Ascot.

5.30 Kempton

For such low prize money, this race has attracted some pretty decent youngsters. First Officer shaped with abundant promise when finishing third at Newmarket last month and is narrowly preferred ahead of Al Nafir, a full-brother to Ghaiyyath who also showed plenty when second on his debut at the same track. Sir Michael Stoute has sent out some promising juvenile debutants recently and his runner, Chimed, is also worthy of consideration. But on the evidence of what I have seen, I think our selection can oblige.

Statistics

2021

All the figures above are based on Betfair Starting Price.