THE BETTING STRATEGY

Year to date: +66.76 points

Sunday 14 November 2021

All in all, a pretty decent day yesterday. Midnight Shadow Won 11.0 and Placed 2.09 and Galahad Quest Placed 3.25. Then to round off our day, Gowel Road Won 7.97. Indeed ran an okay sort of race without ever threatening to get involved in the finish and Whisky Express was a non-runner.

Hopefully, then, we can build on that on what is an unusually decent day of racing for a Sunday and a busy one for us.

PROFITS OF 9.87 pointS

All Selections are settled to Betfair SP

12.30 Punchestown

Vanillier                          1 point win

1.55 Cork

Magic Daze                   1 point win

2.05 Punchestown

Zanahiyr                         2 points win                 

2.55 Cheltenham

Adagio                             0.5 points ew

3.10 Fontwell

Almazhar Garde          1 point win

3.30 Cheltenham

Washington                  1 point win

Analysis

12.30 Punchestown

The Albert Bartlett winner Vanillier certainly wasn't foot perfect when third to Lifetime Ambition on his chasing debut at Down Royal but is sure to have learned plenty from the experience and will be fitter as well after that first run for six months. He has won two hurdle races and a point-to-point from 2m 3f to 3m on ground varying from good to soft to soft - heavy. With normal and expected improvement, he can take this before going on to better things.

1.55 Cork

Another beginner's chase for us and Magic Daze is a quality mare, having finished second in Cheltenham's mares' novice hurdle last season and is race-fit and has chase experience, having run at Galway last month. She is open to improvement from that run and that should be enough to make her extremely competitive here and I expect her to win.

2.05 Punchestown

It’s possible that this trip will prove too short for Zanahiyr who I’ve always felt will improve as she goes further but I’m loath to let her run unbacked in case she can handle this distance. She won her last race, at Down Royal over a furlong further and has a decent chance here against some decent opposition.

2.55 Cheltenham

I think Adagio should be the favourite here and could go really well at a decent price. She was 2^nd in the Triumph hurdle at this venue last March and has since had a wind operation which may well help bring further improvement. Her disappointing run at Aintree last April can be forgotten as it was at the end of a tough campaign and almost certainly came too soon after the Triumph.

3.10 Fontwell

Almazar Garde comes into this race on the back of a disappointing hurdle race at this course last month when beaten and finishing 6^th of eight. Nevertheless, he has won four chases from 2m 3f to 2m 7f on good and good to soft ground and it is that form that makes him look a pretty solid investment here, especially with that warm-up hurdle race behind him.

3.30 Cheltenham

Only four go to post here but I fancy Washington to overturn the likely favourite, I Like To Move It. He is unbeaten in two bumper races and one hurdle race which was his debut over timber at Bangor last month. Ollie Murphy has his string in fine form and this one can add to his growing reputation.

Statistics

2021

All the figures above are based on Betfair Starting Price.

Regards

Karl