THE BETTING STRATEGY

Year to date: +51.64 points

Friday 26 November 2021

I was disappointed with the performance of Whisky Express yesterday. Having seemed to be going okay, he lost his place two out and faded to finish 6^th. I’m certain he will prove to be better than this. Kinderfrau Won 2.7 to finally show some decent form and the step up in trip was certainly the key factor. I could well see this one going hurdling in due course.

It’s an early start for us today and all our four selections will have run in just over an hour. Prices still a bit on the short side but this is mainly to do with the shortage of runners

PROFIT OF 0.67 point

All Selections are settled to Betfair SP

12.40 Newbury

Nassalam                                      1 point win

1.05 Doncaster

Lyrical Genius                             1 point win

1.15 Newbury

Jonbon                                           1 point win

1.50 Newbury

Boothill                                          1 point win

Analysis

12.40 Newbury

This is a really competitive novices chase in which I fancy Nassalam to prevail. He has won two hurdle races and a chase from 2m 2f to 2m 3f on soft and heavy ground. Won on his latest outing in a chase when 3-1fav at Ascot over 2m 3f (soft) last month, beating Solo by a nose. This won’t be easy with Millers Bank, in particular, a serious danger but you couldn’t dismiss the other two either.

1.05 Doncaster

A couple of previous winners in the field here but both carry penalties and in the circumstances, my preference is for Lyrical Genius, who accounted for a subsequent winner when successful in a bumper at Warwick in September. Before that, he had won a point to point and I think he has the ability to take this.

1.15 Newbury

Jonbon, who is a full-brother to Douvan, is a really expensive recruit to the yard, having cost 570,000 pounds after winning an Irish point-to-point last November. Nicky Henderson's gelding had plenty in hand when scoring in a bumper here in March and he can maintain his unbeaten record this afternoon.

1.50 Newbury

A novices chase debut for Boothill and if he jumps round without any problems then he should win this. He has always been held in high regard by connections and his recent placed effort in a Listed handicap hurdle at Ascot, when 3^rd behind Soaring Glory, showed us the talent he possesses. A strapping son of Presenting, Harry Fry's charge always promised to be a chaser and he can strike at the first time of asking here. He has been successful in a hurdle race and a NH flat race at 2m on good to soft ground.

Statistics

2021

All the figures above are based on Betfair Starting Price.

Regards

Karl