THE BETTING STRATEGY

Year to date: +59.17 points

Saturday 27 November 2021

A decent day for us yesterday with a non-runner and three winners from the four selections. Boothill was the one who didn’t go to post but Nassalam Won 3.11, Lyrical Genius Won 5.51 and Jonbon Won 2.01. Nassalam was probably a bit fortunate as two of his three rivals came down when I thought he looked held, but we’ll take it. It’s gone the other way for us before now! Lyrical Genius just managed to get up on the line to win by a short head and Jonbon won very comfortably by six lengths.

It is another busy Saturday for us today with some doubt about what will take place and who will run. Bangor is off and Wolverhampton is inspecting at 11.00 am.

PROFIT OF 7.53 pointS

All Selections are settled to Betfair SP

12.40 Newbury

Flash Collonges                          1 point win

1.15 Newbury

Topofthecotswolds                  0.5 points ew (4 places)

3.00 Newbury

Eklat De Rire                               1 point win

De Machine                                 0.5 points ew (6 places)

3.35 Newbury

Frero Banbou                              2 points win

Analysis

12.40 Newbury

Although he is the outsider of the four runners I do think that Flash Collonges has a bit of a chance here. He has decent hurdles form and like a lot of Paul Nicholls’ horses could well improve for the switch to fences.

1.15 Newbury

Despite his double figure price, Topofthecotswolds is by no means out of it and I’m hopin g he can at least sneak into a place. He ran a decent race when 2^nd at Wetherby a couple of weeks ago and he looked back to form that day.

3.00 Newbury

We’ll go double handed here with the Henry De Bromhead trained Eklat De Rire who is a quality performer and should be able to take this. But I also think that De Machine can get involved here. Kerry Lee’s horse is another decent performer and was never out of the first three in four races last season. It’s a tough race though and I’m hoping the Colin Tizzard trained Mister Malarkey doesn’t bounce back to form. I’ve only discarded him after a  lot of thought. In a competitive race I wouldn’t rule out One More Fleurie at a big price either.

3.35 Newbury

I was disappointed with Frero Banbou in his last race when he was a selection for us and hopefully he can bounce back today. He was behind Grey Diamond in that Ascot race and one in front of Sully Doc AA and it is that latter horse that I fear the most.

Statistics

2021

All the figures above are based on Betfair Starting Price.

Regards

Karl