Today'S Doncaster meeting marks the start of the flat and award winning tipper Richard has his eyes set on the big prize once again with the Lincoln handicap.. read below to see his thoughts.
United Front – 3.35 Doncaster – 1m Handicap – 40/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral – BOG – 1 Point Each Way.
The Lincoln handicap is always the first big flat handicap of the season, and in recent years it has been monopolised by the powerful stables of Charlie Appleby, John Gosden, and William Haggas, with an unexposed, progressive four-year-old.
The head of the market is again dominated by these stables and horse profiles, so it’s likely we will get a similar winner.
The market has sucked out all the value from these horses and backing 7/2 in a big field like this might seem the way to find the most likely winner, but in the long term, we will go skint.
There are better ways to play this market and I like the look of the progressive five-year-old United Front. He was originally trained by the mighty Aiden O’Brien, but after a fair two and three-year-old campaign, which saw him win a maiden and run the subsequent Grade 1 performer Champers Elysees close in a 7F handicap at the galloping Curragh track off a mark of 90, he was sold to UK connections.
In 2021 he showed plenty of solid form over 1 mile up to 1m 4F on all-weather and turf, but he went on an improvement curve this winter, winning twice, which saw his handicap mark jump from 92 to 105. Indeed on his last run he finished a 1.5 length third to Notre Belle Bete, who is 10/1 into today’s Lincoln.
United Front’s mark of 105 looks too steep to win this competitive handicap, but he is very interesting as the handicapper decided to split his all-weather and turf handicap marks last year (before his improvement on all-weather) and he sits on a very attractive turf mark of just 92.
Now it could well be United Front is better on the all-weather, but I don’t think there is a 13lb difference. He has had limited chances on turf including runs on good/firm which didn’t suit, but on today’s good/soft going I feel he could run to his all-weather form.
That would make him the best-handicapped horse in the race. For example, he is 20lb better off with Notre Belle Bete for that 1.5 length defeat, and that horse is a 10/1 whereas United Front is a 40/1 shot.
It could well be the horses at the head of the market are Group class, and will win, but United Front looks potentially well enough handicapped to give them a race and we get a better pay out for placing in the first five than winning on the short priced favourites, plus a huge upside if he could win at 40/1.
I, therefore, recommend 1 point each way at 40/1.
He is still value at 20/1.
