Thursday 28th April

A mixed day with two bets on Thursday. Firstly, at Musselburgh where Colinton (2^nd 7/4) threw away his chances by hanging badly on two of the bends but still went down narrowly. The RP commented: “shaped like comfortably the best horse considering how much ground he sacrificed when hanging badly left a couple of times on the way round“. Perhaps one that got away. Fortunately, we only had to wait half-an-hour to get our money back as Roudemental (WON 7/2) made all to win comfortably.

Friday 29th April

A fascinating card at Newmarket to kick off the three-day Guineas meeting, although I don’t see any betting angles among the small fields. The undoubted start of the show is Yibir in the Jockey Club Stakes (3:35). After winning the Great Voltigeur Stakes in the summer, the son of Dubawi added the Invitational Stakes at Belmont Park before landing the Breeders' Cup Turf at Del Mar. He returned in good form when only beaten a neck in the Sheema Classic and the faster the ground the better. He looks head and shoulders above these rivals.

In notching a five-timer in the autumn, Raasel (Goodwood) rose 21lbs in the ratings. He shaped encouragingly on seasonal debut at Musselburgh. He did get trapped out wide a low draw but showed enough to suggest he can be competitive off a career-high mark. Raasel would be fine on genuine good ground but is untried on faster going:

Goodwood 2:40 – RAASEL – ½ point win @ 6/1 (several firms)

In the six-furlong sprint handicap (3:50) I like the look of Twilight Madness for Simon Hodgson. The colt is one of the least exposed in the line-up having had nine career starts. He won on turf last year at Newmarket and was a close up third at Windsor next time out when stepped up slightly in grade. Twilight Madness caught the eye at Southwell on seasonal debut when going down by a head to a subsequent winner and that should have him spot on for this assignment. On collateral form, Indian Creek is weighted to be a threat to the selection, but typically of the Channon yard, he is inconsistent and will win once a season from multiple starts and I difficult to catch right:

Goodwood 3:50 – TWILIGHT MADNESS – 1 point win @ 11/4 (generally)

There are several potential improvers in the mile three-year-old handicap (4:25) but Barley looks to be the standout pick. Martyn Meade’s colt got off the mark at the fourth attempt when winning a novice over a mile at Nottingham last time out. The front two pulled clear of the field and the runner-up won well next time out. An opening mark of [86] doesn’t look too punitive, while not suggesting he’s thrown in, but Barley has a sound chance:

Goodwood 4:25 – BARLEY – ½ point win @ 11/2 (Sky Bet & Bet Victor)