Tuesday 3rd May
No bet for Tuesday
Wednesday 4th May
The draw bias at Chester is probably the most pronounced in Britain, particularly at sprint trips in handicaps as if all runners have a theoretical equal chance of winning, it is the equivalent of running the 200 metres sprint without a staggered start. Therefore, low-drawn runners already have a premium in the price for their stall advantage.
Day one of Chester’s popular May meeting (or Chester Cup meeting as it might be known). I think the market has the opening Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes (1:30) as I have Star Of Lady M ahead of Ocean Cloud. The latter has trapped well on her two starts and could take some pegging back if she is again fast away from stall 4. Star Of Lady M has also won both of her starts, the form of her Redcar debut
run has been boosted and she improved on that at Ripon, the concern with her is that both wins were on soft ground. Watching her previous run, I think she will act on better ground but 6/4 is a skinny price for a hunch. (Glorious Angel also has an entry in the maiden on Thursday but with stall 10).
In the second, Shamlaan (2:05) looks up to defying a 6lbs penalty for a win at Goodwood last week if he can get away from trap 4. Nymphadora has the best draw and drops in grade for her seasonal return but would not want the ground too quick. Live In The Dream is the obvious favourite as he bolted up at Sandown last time out. He was raised 8lbs for that win and it is interesting that Adam
West is prepared to incur a further 5lbs disadvantage to have Ryan Moore replace the claimer. Hellomydarlin, Vintage Clarets and Navello are all capable of causing an upset if returning to their best 2-y-o form.
It looks a sub-standard Cheshire Oaks (2:40) as it is effectively a conditions race with little group race form on offer with all ten fillies making their pattern race debut. Above The Curve was an impressive winner of a Leopardstown maiden last time out where she comfortably beat Thoughts Of June over ten furlongs. It’s difficult to make a case for Aiden’s filly to reverse the form, other than that he has a good record at
the track, particularly with runners improving significantly from their seasonal debuts. Morning Poem is interesting if she has learnt to settle better than she did on seasonal debut at Kempton. Moon De Vega is the only other runner with an Oaks entry, she seemed to improve for softer ground when getting off the mark at the third attempt.
The recognised Derby trial, the Chester Vase Stakes (3:10), looks to have a touch more quality about it than the preceding fillies’ equivalent. It would be disappointing if the Dubawi colt New London couldn’t land the race at long odds-on.
Easy to make a case for most of the runners in the six-furlong handicap (3:40) but I landed on Buckshaw Village. Richard Fahey’s colt caught the eye last time out at Ripon when staying on over five furlongs. He didn’t see much daylight on that occasion and was given an easy ride once his chance had gone. Trap four is okay and so is the booking of course specialist Franny Norton:
Already advised:
Chester 3:40 – BUCKSHAW VILLAGE – 1 point win @ 10/1 (Bet365; 15/2 others) now 13/2
I don’t have a preference for either of the two Godolphin runners in the maiden (4:15), Honiton and Secret State. Also, worth noting that a good run from Savvy Victory in the Chester Vase would be a boost for the chances of Asean Legend who finished ahead of him on sole turf start.
The concluding seven-furlong handicap (4:15) already looks tricky and there has to be serious doubts that those drawn in double-figure berths will line up.
With only one bet I’d advised, it might be worth doing a smaller stakes Trixie in the first three races with: Star Of Lady M (1:30); Live In The Dream (2:05) & Above The Curve (2:40) all at around 7/4.
Many Thanks,
Neil
Cheek Pieces