Wednesday 4th May

I landed on only one advised bet for Chester, Buckshaw Village who was well-backed overnight but drifted alarmingly once the ground went against him (not that anything was going to beat the winner on the day). Despite that setback I was a relieved I hadn’t advised anything else as I had not factored in a going change to good-to-soft/soft after all weather forecasts were suggesting a two-week drought. The going at Chester seems to deteriorate quickly, after a couple of showers today it looks like they’d over-watered having put 20mm down since Tuesday.

Thursday 5th May

The opening sprint handicap for older horses looks very difficult. I do think that Militia (1:30) might be over-priced as he has the plum draw and a CD win to his name, but he has run in over forty races and is yet to win off a mark in the mid-eighties plus. So, he would really need to make the most of his draw advantage, he acts on any going. But I was hoping for a double-figure price. Bossipop goes well here but is scuppered by the draw. Look Out Louis, Sunday Sovereign and Night On Earth are all draw well if they improve on recent starts, they are all up to winning at this level.

The Deepbridge Handicap (2:05) over an extended seven-furlongs for three-year-olds looks one of the best betting heats of the week. Favourite Outgate ran well enough on seasonal debut when finding only a Godolphin runner too good but is stepping up in grade with 3lbs extra and look opposable. The Musselburgh handicap that Value Theory ran in last time out is working out well, she might have preferred better ground as she did when third in the group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes last summer. Koy Koy improved with each of three starts last season and ended with a 6½ lengths win in a Newbury novice. The son of Acclamation is totally unexposed and has to be in with a shout if he is up to conceding fitness advantage.

I think the Dee Stakes (2:40) was the first race I ever bet on, certainly the win of Playboy Jubilee is the first one I remember. The Derby trial produced the Epsom winner twice at the turn of the century with Oath (1999) and Kris Kin (2003).  Mr McCann, Sonny Liston and Star Of India are attempting to complete the double this year. Sonny Liston and Cresta both race behind Eydon in a listed race at HQ last time and he franked the form with an excellent run in the Guineas. You have to respect AO’Bs record in the race, but I don’t think Star Of India is a standout pick in the race on what he's achieved so far. Of the sextet I have a preference for Dubai Poet who presumably isn’t entered in the Derby as his pedigree is inconclusive regarding stamina. The colt was third to Coroebus and Imperial Fighter in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes and shaped encouragingly when second to Checkandchallenge on seasonal debut.

The Ormonde Stakes (3:10) looks like one to avoid for betting purposes. I like Hamish but he isn’t treated favourably by the race conditions and, although he goes well after a break, I’d have my doubts that this is an early season target.

In the Boodles Raindance Handicap (3:40)the unfortunately named Group One Power who has gone well here before has an each-way shout, but his form tailed off last season and he was very disappointing first time up at Chelmsford. Restorer is another with a good track record, but I find it difficult to work out when Ian Williams’ runners are meant to be competitive, until the money is down and it’s too late.

I don’t have much between the principles in the two-year-old maiden (4:15) but preference is for Blatant, and I’m surprised he’s not favourite. The colt started off in the Brocklesby which is working out well and went down fighting against Ocean Cloud who ran well in the Lily Agnes on Wednesday and has landed the plum draw:

Chester 4:15 – BLATANT – 1 point win @ 6/1 (Bet365; 5/1 generally)

The concluding middle-distance handicap for three-year-olds is another potentially good betting race on the card. Favourite Temple Of Artemis stills holds a Derby entry (as well as Irish Guineas!). He ran well in a ten-furlong Leopardstown maiden won by Boundless Ocean and has plenty of stamina in his pedigree. Mr Alan and Wind Your Neck In were last and second last in the same Newmarket handicap last time out, so need to improve on that. The Prescott horse Abbado has bags of stamina in his pedigree, and it is surprising that he was campaigned at ten furlongs as a juvenile and may have blown his handicap mark as a mark of [86] looks harsh on the form of the races he won:

Chester 4:50 – TEMPLE OF ARAMIS – 1 point win @ 5/2 (several firms)