Thursday 12^th May

After a quiet day on Wednesday, I have several bets for Thursday.

York Day 2

1:50 - 5f Paddy Power 'Making Flat Less Flat' Handicap

Raasel was a nice winner for us at Goodwood last time out, I thought he won with a bit in hand as he had to wait for a gap, and he can continue his progression. He’s not been missed in the market this time at 7/2 favourite and he’s up another 7lbs against stronger opposition. Instead, I’m going with Alligator Alley who hasn’t won any race since winning a listed CD event when with Joseph O’Brien. Now with David O’Meara he had been off the track since October 2020 when an encouraging third in a Wolves conditions event in which Highfield Princess was second. Alligator Alley wasn’t favoured by the conditions against race-fit rivals, but kept on nicely round the outside and is expected to come on a good deal:

York 1:50 – ALLIGATOR ALLEY – ½ point each-way @ 8/1 (4 places Coral, Ladbrokes, Bet365)

2:25 - 1m2½f Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Middleton Fillies' Stakes

At the time, Noon Star looked disappointing when beaten 3¼ lengths in last year’s Musidora, but with hindsight that was a decent effort behind runaway Oaks winner Snowfall and ahead of Teona who went on to finish third in the BC Turf. Noon Star looks the type of filly that her trainer excels with as older horses and looks the one to be with ahead of stablemate Ville De Grace and the favourite Thunder Kiss, for whom this trip may be on the sharp side. No bet.

3:00 - 1m Paddy Power Hambleton Handicap

Cruyff Turn is a similar mark to when winning a CD at the Ebor meeting last year and was an encouraging seventh in the Thirsk Hunt Cup last time out which should have him spot on for this. Isla Kai won the three-year-old mile handicap at the Ebor meeting. He shaped encouragingly first time out when fourth, beaten a length, in the Spring Cup, the winner won a listed race next time out. Isla Kai has gone up another 1lb for that effort but hasn’t got many miles on the clock and may yet produce a career-high performance here. He doesn’t appear to be ground-dependent but would welcome any rain. La Trinidad also has an excellent record over CD having won twice and placed twice, although he may require a pb to win again and would not want any ease in the ground:

York 3:00 – ISLA KAI – ½ point win @ 6/1 (Coral, Lads)

3:35 - 1m2½f Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes

I’m surprised that the bookies are allowing an ‘each-way price’ on Bluegrass after last week’s AOB monopoly of the Derby trials. The Galileo colt shaped encouragingly in the Ballysax on seasonal debut and looks set to improve on that second time up. The Frankel colt Magisterial won a Leicester novice easily enough last time out, but it’s difficult to know what to make of the form, the also-rans haven’t endorsed its credentials. The hype horse Desert Crown, a son of Nathaniel, has been smashed for the Derby based on rumour. To date he won a Nottingham maiden comfortably enough, but this is a big step up and that was on soft ground. El Bodegon is another one who would appreciate easier going as all his form is on soft or worse, albeit form that includes a defeat of Derby favourite Stone Age in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud. It’s an exciting renewal, I hope they all line up, but I don’t have a betting angle.

4:10 - 5f British Stallion Studs EBF Westow Stakes – no selection

4:45 - 6f Frank Whittle Partnership ebfstallions.com Maiden Stakes – no selection

5:20 - 2m½f Fidomoney Handicap

The Cheltenham Festival runner-up, the imaginatively named, Ahorsewithnoname, had no problem returning to the level when winning at Newbury last month. I thought she won with a bit more in hand than the official ¾ length and the 6lbs rise shouldn’t be to punitive, particularly as that was a 0-105 heat and she drops into 0-95 here. Ahorsewithnoname had Master Milliner behind her at Newbury and he should finish closer this time. Emma Lavelle’s gelding was having his first start since September, and as a dual course winner, it can be assumed that this race is an early season target. The other mare in the race, Frankenstella, won the 2020 running of the same CD race that Master Milliner won last year, and her course form gives her an each-way shout. Was an early 9/4, No bet at 11/8.

At Salisbury I’m taking a chance with Monet's Sunrise (2:05) who is still a maiden but has plenty of scope for further improvement. Richard Hannon’s gelding has only had four starts and ran well in both starts as a two-year-old. After finishing runner-up on seasonal debut over a mile on the AW, he was only fifth of six in a Sandown handicap on his first start at ten-furlongs. He travelled well on that occasion before tiring late on and, in typical Ryan Moore fashion, was given an easy time once beaten. Monet's Sunrise was dropped 2lbs for that run and he should be capable of improvement at middle-distances as his pedigree suggests, he looks over-priced:

Salisbury 2:05 – MONET’S SUNRISE – 1 point win @ 8/1 (generally)

Loudspeaker (3:45) was moderate as a juvenile last season but was always likely to improve as a three-year-old with his middle-distance pedigree. The gelding shaped encouragingly on seasonal debut over ten furlongs at Beverley, finishing fourth in a race where it paid to be prominent. Loudspeaker races of the same mark [72] and the step up to 1½m looks sure to suit:

Salisbury 3:45 – LOUDSPEAKER – 1 point win @ 4/1 (generally)

There’s an interesting three-year-old fillies' handicap on Newmarket’s evening card (5:25). Reel Rosie and Convection re-oppose for a 1¾ lengths difference when they were second and third respectively at Nottingham last time out. Convection raced keenly on that occasion and had little left in the tank at the finish. The concern is that with only six runners she could get lit up again, but she should be able to get a lead off Lucia Joy and Doolily. Eshtora has won an AW novice event and is yet to race on turf, I doubt that she would be favourite if she wasn’t trained by the Chrisfords:

Newmarket 5:25 – CONVECTION – 1 point win @ 5/1 (generally)

Bolthole (7:45) ran well after a long absence at Sandown last time out where he caught the eye travelling nicely into contention before tiring understandably late on and looked a winner waiting to happen. Market rival Haunted Dream looks vulnerable in search of a hat-trick up in the weights and grade:

Newmarket 7:45 – BOLTHOLE – 1 point win @ 9/4 (several firms)

A rare foray into summer jumping as I like the chances of Boy's On Tour (Perth 4:55) from a trends angle. The veteran chaser has hit the frame 9 times in from 25 visits to the track, including all four career wins and all were gained between May and August. Lucinda Russell’s gelding is 20lbs lower than his last winning mark, the decline due partly to racing at higher grades and outside summer months. Boy's On Tour showed more encouraging signs when third last time out and has optimum conditions to excel here:

Perth 4:55 – BOY’S ON TOUR – 1 point win @ 7/2 (several firms)