Monday 16th May

Not a good start to the week with the one advised bet Runninwild (1:55) at Carlisle as heavy rain before racing changed the going from “good” before the first race to officially “soft” before the second. That results in his three worst efforts in twelve starts are on the three occasions he’s encountered soft ground. It also negated the benefit of a low draw for the selection as when it’s soft at Carlisle they tend to track over to stands side (the winner came the furthest across). Rowan Scott has ridden at Carlisle fifty-nine times prior to the race, so I’m surprised he stayed far side, but he wouldn’t have won in that ground wherever he raced. The positive to take from the day is that it could have been a lot worse as I had other possibilities at Carlisle and Redcar based on the assumption of decent ground, the Racing Post had “good to firm” with only 6mm of rain.

Tuesday 17th May

In the fillies’ handicap at Nottingham (3:10) I like Yummylicious who ran well in a novice event at Beverley last time out. Prior to that, on her seasonal and handicap debut she refused to settle in a filles’ handicap at Windsor and finished fourth. On the face of it that was disappointing, but four of her seven rivals have won since and a mark of [76] looks winnable for the daughter of Dubawi. Improvise is interesting for Her Majesty as she holds a Ribblesdale entry, she won a fast ground fillies’ novice at Haydock in September. She may have been unsuited by the softer ground in the Cheshire Oaks last time out, but has a bit to prove to justify Group 1 aspirations:

Nottingham 3:10 – YUMMYLICIOUS – 1 point win @ 11/4 (generally)

The last time G'Daay ran on an artificial surface he won a similar race to Wolverhampton’s seven-furlong 3-y-o handicap (2:50). That was back in November, last time out on his second start back after a break he caught the eye staying on from off the pace in a better race than this at Ascot. So, G'Daay drops in grade here and back up to seven furlongs, I expect him to go well:

Wolverhampton 2:50 – G’DAAY – 1 point win @ 6/1 (Bet365; 100/30 others)

The best race on the AW card looks like the extended mile handicap for three-year-olds (3:20) and the beautifully bred Yonafis (by Golden Horn out of a Sharmadal mare) looks to have been found an ideal opportunity to land the hat-trick and remain unbeaten. In December the colt defied a penalty to beat Mr Big Stuff at Chelmsford. With that one running well in the London Gold Cup at the weekend on a mark of [81], an opening perch of [88] looks fair for Yonafis, who should improve beyond that rating when stepped up in trip, but he’s not been missed in the market.