Friday 20th May

No bet advised for Friday

Saturday 21st May

I am not advising any bets at Goodwood, if I do anything there at all it will be last minute. The track is difficult to get a handle on at the best of times but with uncertainty around the going and any draw/track bias, it looks too risky.

Haydock is another track that could see a change to the advertised going, so I am allowing for that. In the competitive Silver Bowl Handicap (2:35) Mighty Ulysses heads the weights and it is interesting that he holds a St James Palace entry having only won a novice event so far. He is due to concede weight all round, but Benoit De La Sayette claims 5lbs effectively leaving the colt competing off [96] so he should be difficult to beat. As an each-way alternative, Dirtyoldtown may have been over-looked. He was highly tried as a juvenile with George Boughey, but he was only ½ length second on handicap debut in a competitive race at Musselburgh to suggest that he can be competitive off his revised mark [91]:

Haydock 2:35 – DIRTYOLDTOWN – ½ point each-way @ 10/1 (4 places with Power & Sky)

In the Sandy Lane Stakes (3:10) I agree with the market as Go Bears Go comes out best of the ratings on the race terms. However, 2/1 is a very skinny price in a race where chances are one ‘not clear run two out’ away from defeat. He doesn’t have much in hand with the likes of Caturra, Flaming Rib and Wings Of War, to name just two. Similarly, in the Temple Stakes where Winter Power is a proven group one filly and 9lbs clear of her closest rivals. She is around 13/8 which is short enough and I’m sure connections would prefer the race to be run ay York where her record is 3 wins from just 4 runs.

To say I’m disappointed that Oo De Lally heads the market for the opener at York (1:40) is some under-statement, as he was being lined-up for a punt. He ran well on seasonal debut in a similar race at Haydock last time out, his first start after a wind op when beaten 2¼ lengths in fifth. He should be much fitter here and I expect an improved effort, but 5/1 when I was hoping for an each-way bet. If the ground were to become testing Safe Voyage would be tempting having slipped to a mark of just [104]. No bet at this stage.

One that is as big enough price to tempt me in is The Menstone Gem (2:20) despite being top-weight. He showed a decent level of form as a juvenile, particularly in a 0-85 Newcastle nursery in November. The gelding was beaten 1¼ lengths into second despite racing keenly. The winner Atrium won at Ascot last time out and is now rated 12lbs higher and the third, Lawful Command, has won twice this season. The Menstone Gem shaped encouragingly on seasonal debut when fifth at Pontefract beaten over eight lengths but the six-furlongs on fast ground would have been quick enough for him. It is a big ask here, conceding weight to a host of unexposed rivals from a high draw, but the price is too big to ignore:

York 2:20 – THE MENSTONE GEM – ½ point each-way @ 22/1 - 6 places (Bet365; 16/1 others)

The highlight of Saturday is undoubtedly the Irish 2,000 Guineas, where hopefully Native Trail can justify his price of long odds-on and gain compensation for just missing out at Newmarket. Later on the card I do like one in the ten-furlong handicap (4:30). Mashhoor is one of the ex-Shadwell horses sold out of the Stoute yard and was acquired by Johnny Murtagh for 40,000gns. He shaped encouragingly on stable debut when fourth of seventeen at Cork last month. That was his first start for 256 days and after being gelded. He looked like playing a part in the finish until tiring late on and should be spot-on for today, any further ease in the ground would be a concern so I will halve stakes:

Curragh 4:30 – MASHHOOR – ½ point win @ 9/1 (several firms)

I still have some races to look at in detail so if I find anything else then I will send an additional message.