Coltor – 6.10 Royal Ascot – 2M 5F Queen Alexandra Stakes – Conditions Race – 100/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral – 3 Places – BOG – 1 Point each way – LVP 25/1
The Queen Alexandra Stakes race is one the longest races in the flat calendar and is a conditions race rather than a handicap. The ability to stay this trip is a fundamental factor and can make specialists that don’t necessarily comply to the standard handicap system.
It looks a cracking renewal with the enigmatic Goshen adding extra spice to the race.
Stratum sets the standard having won it twice in the past, postmarking 103 and 107 to win it. He is now 10 years old, so isn’t getting any better and has to carry a 3lb penalty.
Whilst he is proven at this unique trip, he looks vulnerable to some younger rivals, these being headed by Falcon Eight (rated 106 and winner of the Chester Cup two years ago), Run for Oscar (now rated 103 and winner of the Cesarewitch off a mark of 90) and Dawn Rising (rated 102 owned by J P McManus, is lightly raced on the flat and has shown staying ability in Graded jumps
races over 3 miles).
The Grand Visir has also twice placed in this race (postmarks 93 and 100) and ran well in the 2m 4F Handicap (postmark 101) on Tuesday, so he enters place calculations.
Falcon Eight has twice finished behind Stratum in this, so might not be as effective over this trip.
Whilst Dawn Rising has postmarked 107 from limited goes on the flat, he still has to prove he gets this extreme flat trip and might not improve for the step up. Nevertheless, he is likely to run to somewhere around
105-110 postmark, so for me, looks the most likely winner of the short-priced horses.
Run For Oscar is the higher-profile horse from shrewd connections and is 3/1 here. His highest postmark is 101 and is a 3/1 shot.
Goshen is only rated 88 on the flat and has flattered to deceive, and whilst he is intriguing surely the fast ground is against him.
The one I’ve landed on is Coltor, he was originally with Dermot Weld and showed ability on the flat before going juvenile hurdling and went off favourite for
the Fred Winter handicap hurdle at Cheltenham Festival. He has come back on the flat and has shown glimpses of his ability postmarking 97 to win a big staying handicap over 2m 1F (off a mark of 83) where he did all his best work late on suggesting today’s 2m 5F trip could suit him well.
He has disappointed since on his limited flat runs, but
they have been on soft going and he is a much better horse on a faster, remains unexposed on that surface, and at this extreme trip.
He might only be rated 85, but that 97 postmark demonstrates he is better than that, and he looked like there was more to come.
His new trainer, Roger Fell, is also convinced he will relish this new trip and that makes him really interesting.
Considering there are only 4 postmark points between Run for Oscar and Coltor (101 compared to 97), both with progressive profiles, it’s amazing that
the former is priced at 3/1 yet Coltor is a whooping 100/1.
I think Coltor could improve to run to 105 -107 and that may be a winning effort, but worst case he has a big chance to place, so looks like an exciting 1-point each-way play at 100/1.
Hurricane Ivor – 5.00 Royal Ascot – 6F Wokingham Handicap – 33/1 Bet365, Paddy Power, BFSB – 6 Places BOG – 1 Point each way – LVP 20/1
The Wokingham is one of the
biggest handicaps of the season and I like the look of Hurricane Ivor at tasty 33/1 odds.
He is trained by Mrs John Harrington and it’s a good sign the stable has already had a handicap winner at Royal Ascot this week.
Hurricane Ivor looks interesting, he was originally trained in France before moving to William Haggas’ yard where he improved to win three sprints in the UK off marks of 94, 102, and 107.
During his time in the UK, he ran at Ascot over 5F off a mark of 99 and ran on strongly, only losing by
a short head, but he was drawn on the wrong side that day and actually ‘won’ his race by 4 lengths. That shows he acts at the track.
His form dipped for a few runs and was sold onto Irish connections where he has taken four runs to properly his form.
In his latest start he stayed on well in a valuable 6F handicap to finish a close third.
With him nicely in form, he looks well enough handicapped to win off 103.
I like that he has been
reunited with Tom Marquand who has won on him three times and let’s hope he can give another well-judged ride.
The 33/1 looks overpriced and I’m recommending 1 point each way.