Cheltenham Day 1 - Betting Guide, Key Trends & Expert Predictions

Just to quickly point out - some of the predictions will seem blindingly obvious, Stats & Trends along with confirmed runners fed to ai to generate you the full previews, as per the stats & trends.

13:20 – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

🔥 Best Trend Fit: Kopek Des Bordes

✅ Rated 157 (above key benchmark)
✅ Trained by W P Mullins
✅ Ideal age and profile
✅ Proven at Grade 1 level

READ THE FULL STATS AND PREVIEW HERE

14:00 - Arkle Chase

🔥 Best Trend Fit: Majborough

✅ Rated above the key 151 benchmark
✅ Trained by W P Mullins
✅ Age and form match winning profile
✅ Short-priced favourite — history favours odds-on favourites

READ THE FULL STATS AND PREVIEW HERE

14:00 - Arkle Chase

🔥 Best Trend Fit: Majborough

✅ Rated above the key 151 benchmark
✅ Trained by W P Mullins
✅ Age and form match winning profile
✅ Short-priced favourite — history favours odds-on favourites

READ THE FULL STATS AND PREVIEW HERE

14:40 Ultima Handicap Chase

🔥 Best Trend Fit: The Changing Man

✅ Second-season chaser
✅ Strong Cheltenham form
✅ Winning profile fits the key trends

🚫 Runners to Avoid:

❌ Irish-Trained Horses: 0 winners from 46 runners since 2006 – tough for them to break the trend.
❌ Older Horses: Only one winner aged 10+ since 2010 – prefer 7-8 year-olds.
❌ Fallers Last Time Out: Corach Rambler (2022) was the first winner off a U/F/P since 1997.

READ THE FULL STATS AND PREVIEW HERE

15:20 Mares Hurdle

🔥 Best Trend Fit: Lossiemouth

✅ Top-rated mare (160)
✅ Defending champion
✅ Proven Festival form

🚫 Runners to Avoid:

❌ Queens Gamble – Unlikely to match the class of the top Irish mares.
❌ Gala Marceau – Out of form and unlikely to trouble the front-runners.
❌ Casa No Mento – Lowly rated and out of depth in this company.

READ THE FULL STATS AND PREVIEW HERE

16:00 Champion Hurdle

🔥 Best Trend Fit: Constitution Hill

✅ Defending champion.
✅ Unbeaten this season.
✅ Won a Grade 1 last time out.
✅ Trained by Nicky Henderson.

🚫 Runners to Avoid:

❌ Golden Ace – Outclassed based on OR and RPR.
❌ Burdett Road – A 5-year-old, and only two 5-year-olds have won this in the last 30 years.
❌ Winter Fog – An 11-year-old, far too old to match the younger stars.
❌ King of Kingsfield – No Grade 1 form; unlikely to compete at this level.

READ THE FULL STATS AND PREVIEW HERE

16:40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

✅ Best Trend Fit: Stencil

✅ Strong juvenile form.
✅ Trained in Ireland.
✅ Unexposed and progressive.
✅ Ran well in graded trials.

💰 Each-Way Value

➡️ Beyond Your Dreams (7/1) – Proven Joseph O’Brien horse, strong form.
➡️ Murcia (12/1) – Willie Mullins runner in great form.
➡️ Stencil (11/2) – Strong recent form and improving.

🚫 Runners to Avoid:

❌ Sony Bill – Paul Townend onboard, but no Grade 1 form.
❌ Quantock Hills – High weight, low RPR — unlikely to figure.
❌ Static – Recent fall and poor jumping record — tough to back.
❌ Wendrock – Outclassed based on ratings and form.

READ THE FULL STATS AND PREVIEW HERE

17:20 National Hunt Chase

✅ Best Trend Fit: Sa Majeste

✅ Fits all major trends (age, rating, trainer, experience).
✅ Trained by Willie Mullins — dominant in this race.
✅ Strong each-way value at 10/1.ATS AND PREVIEW HERE

💰 Each-Way Value

➡️ Captain Cody (15/2) – Trained by W P Mullins, strong profile.
➡️ Sa Majeste (10/1) – Ideal trends fit, Mullins factor.
➡️ Transmission (5/1) – Proven stamina and Mullins booking adds appeal.

🚫 Runners to Avoid:

❌ Gericault Roque – High weight, inconsistent form.
❌ Duffle Coat – Rated too high, poor recent form.
❌ Kyntara – Low rating and limited chase experience.
❌ Stuzzikini – Beaten last time out, inconsistent.

READ THE FULL STATS AND PREVIEW HERE