Pete's Paddock Picks
The service has shown promise in its first few days of testing with 5 wins from 6 selections and has been around since 2022. Brilliantly titled Petes Paddock Picks:
December 2024 ended: +£44.78
Year 2024 finished: +£364.90
Year 2023 finished: +£469.27
Results to £1 stakes
1:20 pm Cheltenham – Final Demand (Nap)
The New Lion produced a strong performance when landing the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle, leading to a high-profile purchase by JP McManus. While the win initially
looked like a top-class effort, the form hasn’t held up well since, so I’m passing on him this time.
Potters Charm impressed when winning over this course and distance last spring, following up with a Grade 1 victory at Aintree on Boxing Day over the minimum trip. If he was coming into this race straight off that Formby Hurdle win, he wouldn’t be available at such long odds. However, his disappointing run on Trials Day has lowered expectations. That said, he’s better
than that performance and is fitted with a tongue-tie for the first time, which could spark improvement.
The Yellow Clay remains unbeaten in Grade 1 company and showed quality when winning at Naas last time. While he shapes more like a stayer suited to the Albert Bartlett, he did travel very well. The recent rain should work in his favor.
The Yellow Clay's 11-length win over stablemate Wingmen (a key contender for the Albert Bartlett) at Naas
puts him in the mix. However, Wingmen was 12 lengths behind Final Demand at the Dublin Racing Festival in a 2m6f Grade 1 where the Willie Mullins-trained novice was highly impressive.
Final Demand remains unbeaten, having won his two races by a combined 27 lengths without ever coming under pressure. He looks like a future star and should have the necessary speed to handle the drop in trip. He’s one of the most exciting prospects in training right
now.
Selection: Final Demand (Nap) – 7/4 with Unibet
2:40 pm Cheltenham – Be Aware (Each-Way) & Jipcot (Each-Way)
I backed Be Aware at 10/1 for the Coral Cup when the major firms introduced their non-runner no bet (NRNB) terms. He’s now available at a best price of 11/2.
Dan Skelton is seeking a third straight win in this
race after the success of Langer Dan in 2023 and 2024. Be Aware has been knocking on the door, finishing second in the Greatwood at Cheltenham in November and third at Ascot the following month in two competitive handicaps over the minimum trip. He’s been crying out for a step back up in trip, and this looks ideal.
Be Aware’s sole career win from six starts doesn’t reflect his ability. He was raised 7 lbs for his second-place finish in the Greatwood, where he was
narrowly beaten by Burdett Road while receiving just 3 lbs.
Brighton FC owner Tony Bloom’s horse, Bunting, has been heavily backed since declarations. Paul Townend is booked for the Willie Mullins-trained five-year-old, who finished 20 lengths behind Majborough in last year’s Triumph Hurdle. He made a significant mistake three out at Clonmel on his reappearance but was only beaten by three-quarters of a length. The margin may have flattered him, and
he’ll need to step up to win this.
Impose Toi and Ballyadam are respected, but I’m taking a chance on Jipcot at bigger odds. He’s been running over 3 miles recently, but the drop back in distance should suit. Trained by Jonjo O’Neill, he turned a 2m4f handicap at Newbury into a procession over Christmas from a 10 lbs lower mark. At 25/1, he looks a lively outsider.
Selections:
- Be Aware (Each-Way) –
10/1 with Paddy Power (5 places)
- Jipcot (Each-Way) – 25/1 with Paddy Power (6 places)
3:20 pm Cheltenham – Galvin & Vanillier
Stumptown wears cheekpieces for the first time, which is a slight surprise, though it's not uncommon for top Irish trainers to make this kind of change at the Festival. He won well over course and distance in the autumn but is now 8 lbs higher. I’m opposing him with
Galvin and Vanillier.
Galvin receives 3 lbs from Stumptown and finished second in this race two years ago to the late Delta Work. He also finished second in the American Grand National (2m5f) when last seen in October, following a fourth-place finish in the Grand National at Aintree. He’s now 1 lb lower than his Grand National mark, and drying ground will be in his favor.
Vanillier benefited from first-time
blinkers last time when winning over the Punchestown Banks under Keith Donaghue, who sticks with Stumptown here, leaving Sean Flanagan to ride the grey. Vanillier has previously looked short of stamina over this course and distance, but he did win the Albert Bartlett here in 2021 and finished second in the Grand National last year. If the blinkers work again, he’s a big player, and like Galvin, quicker ground would be a plus.
Selections:
- Galvin – 4/1 with Bet365
- Vanillier – 8/1 with Coral
4:00 pm Cheltenham – Marine Nationale (excluding Jonbon)
Jonbon’s only two defeats over fences have come at Cheltenham, and although he looks tough to beat, the value lies with Marine Nationale in the "without Jonbon" market.
Solness has shown real improvement
recently and will appreciate drying ground, but he was beaten 25 lengths by Jonbon in the Tingle Creek, so it’s hard to see that form reversing.
Marine Nationale’s Supreme win last year was a breakthrough moment for the late Michael O’Connor. Barry O’Connell has brought him along steadily this term, and the quicker surface is expected to suit. He was beaten by Solness by a couple of lengths at Leopardstown last time but is expected to reverse that form here. The 12/5
available without Jonbon looks like a fair price.
Selection: Marine Nationale (without Jonbon) – 12/5 with BetVictor
4:40 pm Cheltenham – Unexpected Party & Third Time Lucki (Each-Way)
My Mate Mozzie keeps knocking on the door but struggles to get over the line. He’ll likely go close again but may find one or two too strong. I’m backing Unexpected
Party and Third Time Lucki.
Unexpected Party won this race last year and is 6 lbs higher in the weights this time. He was a comfortable winner from Libberty Hunter, who has since been raised 12 lbs. He’s now 5 lbs lower than when finishing fourth in the Old Roan Chase, where he travelled strongly but faded late. Despite being ten years old, the race isn’t packed with unexposed talent, and he should go well.
Third
Time Lucki hasn’t hit the heights expected since switching to Fergal O’Brien after a long layoff. His early runs were encouraging, but his last effort at Doncaster was disappointing. That said, the handicapper has given him a chance, and better ground should suit. He’s now well-handicapped based on past form, and the 20/1 available looks generous.
Selections:
- Unexpected Party – 6/1 with Bet365
- Third Time Lucki (Each-Way) – 20/1 with
Betfred (5 places)
