Cheltenham Day 3 - Betting Guide, Key Trends & Expert Predictions

Published: Wed, 03/12/25

Updated: Wed, 03/12/25

Cheltenham Day 3 - Betting Guide, Key Trends & Expert Predictions

Just to quickly point out - some of the predictions will seem blindingly obvious, Stats & Trends along with confirmed runners fed to ai to generate you the full previews, as per the stats & trends.

13:20 - Mares' Novices' Hurdle

The Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (The Dawn Run) is one of the newer races at the Cheltenham Festival, having been established in 2016. Despite being a relatively new contest, clear patterns have emerged, especially around age, experience, and the dominance of certain trainers.

Initially dominated by Willie Mullins (who won the first five renewals), British trainers have taken control in recent years, winning the last three renewals. Stamina and race experience have become key factors, and second-season novices have performed particularly well.

📊 Key Trends & Winning Profile

✅ Age Matters: 📅 All 9 winners were aged 5 or 6.
✅ Experience Counts: 🔄 6 of the last 9 winners had run at least 4 times over hurdles.
✅ Irish vs British Trainers: 6 of the 9 winners were Irish-trained, but the last three were British-trained.
✅ Second-Season Novices Do Well: 📈 4 of the last 8 winners were second-season novices.
✅ Stamina a Plus: 🏇 8 of the 9 winners had placed over 2m2f or further.
✅ Recent Form Crucial: 🚀 All 9 winners finished in the first three last time out.
✅ Avoid Beaten Favourites (BF): ❌ No beaten favourite last time out has won.
✅ Headgear a Negative: ⚠️ No winner has worn blinkers or cheekpieces.
✅ British-Bred Struggles: Just 2 winners from 32 British-bred runners.
✅ Favourite Struggles: 😬 The last six favourites were beaten, including five at odds under 3/1.
✅ P Nicholls’ Record Poor: ❌ 0-12 in this race with no placed finishers.

🏇 Recent Winners & Trends Analysis

Year	Winner	Age	OR	SP	Trainer	Jockey	Last Race
2024	Golden Ace	6	124	10/1	J Scott	L Williams	1st Taunton Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (37)
2023	You Wear It Well	6	135	16/1	J Snowden	G Sheehan	1st G2 Sandown 2m4f Mares’ Novice (28)
2022	Love Envoi	6	135	15/2	H Fry	J Burke	1st G2 Sandown 2m4f Mares’ Novice (28)
2021	Telmesomethinggirl	6	136	5/1	H de Bromhead	R Blackmore	3rd DRF Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (39)
2020	Concertista	6	141	9/2	W Mullins	D Jacob	3rd DRF Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (39)

🔍 Key Takeaways:

✅ 6-year-olds have won the last 5 renewals.
✅ Stamina matters – 8 of the last 9 winners had 2m2f+ form.
✅ Graded/Listed race form is important – The last 5 winners had placed at Graded level.
✅ Second-season novices have done well – 4 of the last 8 winners were in their second season over hurdles.
✅ Beaten favourites last time out have a terrible record – Avoid them.
✅ Willie Mullins’ dominance has faded – He hasn’t won in the last 4 years.

🎯 Expert Verdict: Who to Bet On?

✅ Look for a 5 or 6-year-old with proven stamina over 2m2f or further.
✅ Focus on horses with Graded/Listed form or experience in competitive fields.
✅ Avoid beaten favourites and headgear-wearing horses.
✅ The market has misfired recently – Look for value selections rather than favourites.

📈 Best Bets for Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle 2025 – Top Selections

🏇 Horse	📉 Odds	🎯 Trainer	🔥 Age	📊 OR	⭐ RPR
Sixandahalf	3/1	Gavin Cromwell	5	–	143
Maughreen	13/2	W P Mullins	6	–	130
Karoline Banbou	9/1	W P Mullins	5	132	137
Galileo Dame	13/2	J P O’Brien	4	137	145
Jubilee Alpha	12/1	Paul Nicholls	6	128	138

✅ Sixandahalf (3/1)

✅ Trained by Gavin Cromwell – Knows how to train a Festival winner.
✅ Top-rated horse in the race – RPR of 143.
✅ Won over 2m4f – Strong stamina profile.
💪 Verdict: Perfect trend fit – Major player.

✅ Maughreen (13/2)

✅ Trained by Willie Mullins – Won five of the first seven renewals.
✅ Proven class – Graded form.
✅ Big-field experience.
💪 Verdict: Classic Mullins plot horse – Expect improvement.

✅ Karoline Banbou (9/1)

✅ Trained by Willie Mullins – Multiple entries suggest confidence.
✅ Strong RPR – 137
✅ Has form over 2m4f – Ideal stamina.
💪 Verdict: Each-way value – Could surprise.

✅ Galileo Dame (13/2)

✅ Trained by Joseph O’Brien – Improving trainer at the Festival.
✅ High RPR of 145 – Highest in the field.
✅ Four-year-old – A negative, but has the class.
💪 Verdict: Big talent – Breaking trends?

✅ Jubilee Alpha (12/1)

✅ Trained by Paul Nicholls – Trying to break a poor record in the race.
✅ Decent RPR of 138 – Competitive on paper.
✅ Won over 2m4f – Stamina not an issue.
💪 Verdict: Dark horse – Worth an each-way shot.

🚫 Runners to Avoid

❌ Aurora Vega (10/1) – Aged 7 – No winner older than 6.
❌ Venusienne (25/1) – No notable form in Listed or Graded company.
❌ Mystical Goddess (80/1) – No standout form – outclassed.
❌ Magic McColgan (40/1) – Beaten in weak company – Unlikely to feature.
❌ Just A Rose (16/1) – Trained by Paul Nicholls – Poor Festival record.

💰 Each-Way Value

➡️ Karoline Banbou (9/1) – Willie Mullins’ second string – Proven over trip.
➡️ Galileo Dame (13/2) – High-class form – Represents value.
➡️ Jubilee Alpha (12/1) – Paul Nicholls horse at a big price – Solid form.

🔥 Best Trend Fit: Sixandahalf

✅ Unbeaten profile.
✅ Strong trainer/jockey combo.
✅ Ideal RPR for this race.

🏆 Top Selection: Sixandahalf – Ticks all the right boxes.

💼 Best Each-Way Bet: Karoline Banbou – Strong form and value.

🚀 Dark Horse: Galileo Dame – High rating but unproven age group.

14:00 - Jack Richards Novices' Chase

The Jack Richards Limited Handicap Novices’ Chase 2025 marks the return of a competitive novice handicap chase to the Cheltenham Festival after a five-year hiatus. This race replaces the old Centenary Novices’ Handicap Chase (last run in 2020), which has produced future stars such as Imperial Aura and A Plus Tard.

With a £125,000 prize fund, it will likely attract a blend of improving novice chasers and horses with Graded form just below top level.

📊 Key Trends & Winning Profile

✅ Recent Form: 🔥 13 of the last 16 winners won or finished second last time out.
✅ Chase Experience Crucial: 🏇 12 of the last 13 winners had run 3–4 times over fences.
✅ Limited Chase Wins: 🎯 15 of the last 16 winners had won no more than two chase races.
✅ Trip Stamina Test: 🏆 The race distance of 2m 4½f places a premium on stamina – proven form over this trip is crucial.
✅ Age Profile: 🧑‍🦱 12 of the last 16 winners were aged 6 or 7.
✅ January Form Guide: 📅 4 of the last 8 winners contested the January Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase at Cheltenham.
✅ Experience Ceiling: ❌ Horses with 13+ chase runs are 0-129 – lightly raced chasers hold the edge.
✅ Class Edge: 🏅 Horses rated 142–155 have a strong record.
✅ Big-Field Experience: 🏇 Horses with experience in fields of 12+ runners tend to perform well.

🏇 Recent Winners & Trends Analysis

Year	Winner	Age	OR	SP	Trainer	Jockey	Last Race
2020	Imperial Aura	7	143	4/1	K Bailey	D Bass	2nd Warwick (32)
2019	A Plus Tard	5	144	5/1	H De Bromhead	R Blackmore	2nd Leopardstown (45)
2018	Mister Whitaker	6	137	13/2	M Channon	B Hughes	1st Carlisle (28)
2017	Tully East	7	138	8/1	A Fleming	D Russell	4th Leopardstown (39)
2016	Ballyalton	9	140	12/1	I Williams	B Geraghty	2nd Warwick (24)

🔍 Key Takeaways:

✅ Proven form over 2m4f is critical.
✅ Horses rated between 138–155 have the best strike rate.
✅ Lightly raced novices with 3–4 chase runs are key.
✅ The market is usually a decent guide – no winner in the last 10 years bigger than 12/1.
✅ Horses that won or placed last time out are preferred.
✅ Five-year-olds struggle unless particularly well-handicapped.

🎯 Expert Verdict: Who to Bet On?

The key profile is a 6 or 7-year-old, with strong recent form over a similar trip, rated between 138 and 155. Horses with experience in big fields and at Cheltenham (or similarly undulating tracks) are particularly strong contenders.

📈 Best Bets for Jack Richards Limited Handicap Novices’ Chase 2025 – Top Selections

🏇 Horse	📉 Odds	🎯 Trainer	🔥 Age	📊 OR	⭐ RPR
Nurburgring	13/2	J P O’Brien	5	143	143
Firefox	15/2	Gordon Elliott	7	150	155
Asian Master	8/1	W P Mullins	8	144	154
Springwell Bay	10/1	Jonjo O’Neill	8	154	160
Pic Roc	12/1	Ben Pauling	7	137	161

✅ Nurburgring (13/2)

✅ 143 OR – Ideal for this race.
✅ Strong novice chase form in Ireland.
✅ Lightly raced – Open to improvement.
✅ Age is a slight negative at 5 but the class is clear.
💪 Verdict: Solid contender – ticks most of the key trends.

✅ Firefox (15/2)

✅ Trained by Gordon Elliott – Excellent Cheltenham record.
✅ 150 OR – High-class handicap mark.
✅ Big-field form – Placed in strong Irish novice chases.
✅ Proven over 2m4f+.
💪 Verdict: Top class – Looks the most likely winner.

✅ Asian Master (8/1)

✅ Trained by W P Mullins – The master of Festival winners.
✅ 144 OR – Perfectly placed in the handicap.
✅ Proven over trip and in big fields.
✅ Top RPR of 154 – Among the highest in the field.
💪 Verdict: Well-handicapped and solid form – Big player.

✅ Springwell Bay (10/1)

✅ 154 OR – Joint top-rated in the field.
✅ Placed in a Graded novice chase – Strong form.
✅ Unexposed over fences – Open to further improvement.
💪 Verdict: Could be very well-handicapped.

✅ Pic Roc (12/1)

✅ Lightly raced novice – Ideal profile.
✅ 137 OR – Well-handicapped.
✅ Proven over 2m4f – Stamina confirmed.
✅ Ben Pauling’s yard is in excellent form.
💪 Verdict: Great each-way value.

🚫 Runners to Avoid

❌ O’Moore Park (14/1) – Recent form poor – Beaten in weak races.
❌ Lord Of Thunder (18/1) – Lacks experience over fences.
❌ Es Perfecto (33/1) – Too old at 10 – Trends favour younger horses.
❌ Shanbally Kid (33/1) – OR of 129 is too low for this level.
❌ Ryan’s Rocket (33/1) – OR too low and inconsistent.

💰 Each-Way Value

➡️ Pic Roc (12/1) – Progressive novice – Unexposed over trip.
➡️ Asian Master (8/1) – Class form, could improve further.
➡️ Springwell Bay (10/1) – Ideal OR, big-field form.

🔥 Best Trend Fit: Firefox

✅ Perfect age profile.
✅ OR of 150 – Ideal for a novice handicap.
✅ Experience in Irish Graded races.
✅ Strong form over 2m4f.

🏆 Top Selection: Firefox – Best profile fit and ideal OR.

💼 Best Each-Way Bet: Pic Roc – Well-handicapped and improving.

🚀 Dark Horse: Asian Master – W P Mullins factor in play.

14:40 - Pertemps Handicap Hurdle

The Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final is one of the most competitive races at the Cheltenham Festival. Known for being a “plot race,” trainers often use clever tactics to ensure their horse qualifies without compromising their handicap mark. This race regularly throws up big-priced winners, as staying power, shrewd campaigning, and the ability to peak at the right time are all key factors.

📊 Key Trends & Winning Profile

✅ Recent Form Matters: 🔥 No winner this century had their final prep run at Cheltenham.
✅ Experience Level: 🏇 Only 3 of the last 13 winners had more than 10 hurdle runs.
✅ Qualifiers Are Key: 7 of the last 8 Irish-trained winners ran in the Leopardstown Qualifier.
✅ Winning a Qualifier Isn’t a Positive: ❌ Only 2 of the last 26 winners had actually won a qualifier.
✅ Weight & Ratings: 💪 12 of the last 14 winners were rated 138+, but none above 152 unless a previous winner.
✅ Age Profile: 🎯 12 of the last 13 winners were aged 6 to 8.
✅ JP McManus Effect: 👑 He loves to lay one out for this race.
✅ Tongue Tie Factor: 👅 8 of the last 9 winners wore a tongue tie.
✅ Favourites’ Struggles: 🚫 No beaten favourite last time out has won this century.
✅ No Course Form: ❌ Only 3 winners this century had previously won at Cheltenham.
✅ Winning Distance: 🏁 Stayers do well, but only 8 of the last 12 winners had 3m form before this.

🏇 Recent Winners & Trends Analysis

Year	Winner	Age	OR	SP	Trainer	Jockey	Last Race
2024	Monmiral	7	138	25/1	P Nicholls	H Cobden	4th in Chepstow 3m Qualifier (19 days prior)
2023	Good Time Jonny	8	142	9/1	A J Martin	L McKenna (5)	12th in Leopardstown Qualifier (39 days prior)
2022	Third Wind	8	141	25/1	H Morrison	T O’Brien	3rd in Haydock G2 (26 days prior)
2021	Mrs Milner	6	134	12/1	P Nolan	B Cooper	Fell in Leopardstown Qualifier (39 days prior)
2020	Sire du Berlais	8	152	10/1	G Elliott	B Geraghty	4th in Warwick Qualifier (61 days prior)
2019	Sire du Berlais	7	145	4/1F	G Elliott	B Geraghty	6th in Leopardstown Qualifier (76 days prior)

📈 Best Bets for Pertemps Handicap Hurdle 2025 – Top Selections

✅ Jeriko Du Reponet (11/2)
✅ Consistent in high-class handicaps this season.
✅ Placed 3rd at Exeter over 2m7f in a competitive field.
✅ BHA rating of 135 — fits the winning profile.
✅ From the powerful Nicky Henderson yard.
💪 Verdict: Solid, consistent form and progressive profile — big chance.

✅ Will The Wise (7/1)
✅ Trained by Gavin Cromwell — Irish dominance in this race.
✅ Strong recent form over 2m6½f.
✅ Rating of 134 — ideal winning range.
✅ Keith Donoghue rides — solid booking.
💪 Verdict: Perfect profile for this race — strong contender.

✅ Win Some Lose Some (8/1)
✅ Trained by Padraig Roche — strong Irish connections.
✅ Placed over 3 miles — proven stamina.
✅ Rating of 138 — within winning range.
💪 Verdict: Solid form and ideal profile — big player.

✅ Feet Of A Dancer (10/1)
✅ Trained by Paul Nolan — knows how to target this race.
✅ Strong recent form over 2m6½f.
✅ Rating of 136 — competitive mark.
💪 Verdict: Proven stamina and ideal profile — strong each-way value.

✅ D Art D Art (12/1)
✅ Finished 2nd at Carlisle over 3m1f — strong staying form.
✅ Rating of 136 — within winning range.
✅ From the Thomas Cooper yard — shrewd target placement.
💪 Verdict: Strong form and perfect trip — dangerous at a price.

✅ Catch Him Derry (16/1)
✅ Trained by Dan Skelton — top handicap trainer.
✅ Won at Exeter over 2m7f — ideal trial.
✅ Low weight (129) — potential to outperform rating.
💪 Verdict: Improving horse with a strong chance of placing.

🚫 Runners to Avoid
❌ Henri The Second (20/1) – Rare for an 8-year-old to win this.
❌ Lucky Lyreen (20/1) – Poor recent form.
❌ American Sniper (80/1) – Rating too low and exposed.
❌ Thomas Mor (50/1) – Too exposed — better handicapped runners available.
❌ Karl Des Tourelles (20/1) – 5-year-olds struggle in this race.

💰 Each-Way Value
➡️ Feet Of A Dancer (10/1) – Proven stamina, right trainer.
➡️ Catch Him Derry (16/1) – Could improve significantly.
➡️ Jeriko Du Reponet (11/2) – Profile fits like a glove.

🔥 Best Trend Fit: Jeriko Du Reponet
✅ Strong recent form.
✅ Consistent in high-class handicaps.
✅ From a leading trainer with Cheltenham-winning form.

🏆 Top Selection: Jeriko Du Reponet – Best profile fit and ideal OR.

💼 Best Each-Way Bet: Feet Of A Dancer – Irish-trained and well-handicapped.

🚀 Dark Horse: D Art D Art – Recent form + ideal age profile.

15:20 - Ryanair Chase

The Ryanair Chase is one of the most competitive Grade 1 chases at the Cheltenham Festival. It demands a mix of class, stamina, and tactical speed over the intermediate distance of 2 miles and 5 furlongs. Since its upgrade to a Grade 1 in 2008, it has become a key target for elite middle-distance chasers.

📊 Key Trends & Winning Profile

✅ Age: Last 12 winners aged 7 to 9.
✅ Course Experience: 13 of the last 17 winners had already won at Cheltenham.
✅ Festival Form: Last 9 winners had run in at least two previous Festivals.
✅ Seasonal Runs: None of the last 17 winners had more than 4 runs that season.
✅ Graded Success: 13 of the last 17 had already won a Grade 1.
✅ Ratings: Last 15 winners were rated 161+; those rated 170+ are 4 from 6.
✅ French Breeding: All the last 11 winners were French-bred.
✅ Trainer Profile: Willie Mullins has won 5 of the last 9 renewals.
✅ Tactics: Last 11 winners either made all, tracked leaders, or raced prominently.
✅ SP Range: 12 of the last 13 winners returned 17/2 or shorter.
✅ Headgear: No winner since 2015 wore first-time headgear.
✅ Ascot/Peterborough Chase: No winner since 2010 had contested the Ascot or Peterborough Chase that season.
✅ King George Form: Only Envoi Allen has won after running in the King George that season.

🏇 Recent Winners & Trends Analysis

Year	Winner	Age	OR	SP	Trainer	Jockey	Last Race
2024	Protektorat	9	165	17/2	D Skelton	H Skelton	3rd in G2 Denman Chase (33 days prior)
2023	Envoi Allen	9	163	13/2	H De Bromhead	R Blackmore	7th in King George (80 days prior)
2022	Allaho	8	174	4/7F	W Mullins	P Townend	1st in G2 Thurles Chase (53 days prior)
2021	Allaho	7	162	3/1F	W Mullins	R Blackmore	1st in G2 Thurles Chase (50 days prior)
2020	Min	9	169	2/1	W Mullins	P Townend	2nd in G1 Leopardstown (40 days prior)
2019	Frodon	7	169	9/2	P Nicholls	B Frost	1st in G2 Cotswold Chase (47 days prior)

📈 Best Bets for Ryanair Chase 2025 – Top Selections

✅ Fact To File (6/4)
✅ Trained by Willie Mullins – 5-time winner of the Ryanair.
✅ High rating of 166 – fits the winning range.
✅ Consistent Grade 1 form – 2nd in a Gold Cup trial last time.
✅ Course winner at Cheltenham.
💪 Verdict: Ticks every major box – the class act in the field and likely winner.

✅ Il Est Francais (10/3)
✅ French-bred – all the last 11 winners were FRE bred.
✅ Strong RPR of 177 – highest in the field.
✅ Grade 1 winner over 2m4f in France.
✅ James Reveley rides – experienced in French tactics.
💪 Verdict: Major player if adapting to Cheltenham – French dominance angle.

✅ Protektorat (11/2)
✅ Won this last year – course form always a positive.
✅ Proven stayer with a rating of 166.
✅ Strong run in the Denman Chase – stays further.
✅ Trained by Dan Skelton – top trainer in UK handicaps.
💪 Verdict: Defending champion – knows how to win this race.

✅ Djelo (14/1)
✅ Won at Ascot this season over 2m5f.
✅ Rating of 166 – fits winning range.
✅ Trained by Venetia Williams – excellent target placement.
💪 Verdict: Could surprise with a tactical ride – strong each-way value.

✅ Heart Wood (16/1)
✅ Trained by Henry De Bromhead – excellent Festival record.
✅ Finished 2nd at Punchestown in a Grade 2 over 2m4f.
✅ Rating of 159 – slightly below ideal but capable of improving.
💪 Verdict: Could sneak into the frame – strong staying form.

✅ Envoi Allen (16/1)
✅ Won this race in 2023 – proven course form.
✅ Rachael Blackmore rides – exceptional Cheltenham jockey.
✅ Rating of 163 – well within the winning range.
💪 Verdict: Previous winner – if he recaptures old form, he’ll be a danger.

🚫 Runners to Avoid
❌ Jungle Boogie (12/1) – Rare for an 11-year-old to win this.
❌ Master Chewy (50/1) – Too inexperienced and lacks the class for this level.
❌ Hang In There (100/1) – Exposed and not up to Grade 1 level.

💰 Each-Way Value
➡️ Djelo (14/1) – Strong tactical speed – could surprise.
➡️ Protektorat (11/2) – Proven over the course – consistent form.
➡️ Heart Wood (16/1) – De Bromhead’s horses tend to outperform at Cheltenham.

🔥 Best Trend Fit: Fact To File
✅ 8 years old – fits the perfect age profile.
✅ Rating of 166 – in the ideal range for winning this race.
✅ Trained by Willie Mullins – 5-time winner of the Ryanair.
✅ Proven Grade 1 form – won over similar trips.

🏆 Top Selection: Fact To File – Ideal profile and strongest form.

💼 Best Each-Way Bet: Djelo – Trained to peak at the Festival.

🚀 Dark Horse: Il Est Francais – Could be the first French-trained winner since 2008.

16:00 - Stayers' Hurdle

The Stayers’ Hurdle is the premier staying hurdle race at the Cheltenham Festival, contested over about 3 miles. It’s a demanding test of stamina, class, and jumping ability — and one of the most unpredictable championship races of the week.

📊 Key Trends & Winning Profile

✅ Age: 9 of the last 11 winners were aged 6 or 7.
✅ Festival Experience: 23 of the last 24 winners had previously been placed at least at Grade 1 level.
✅ Graded Success: All of the last 23 winners had won at least a Grade 2.
✅ Distance Form: 24 of the last 27 winners had placed in a Grade 1 over 3 miles.
✅ Course Experience: 29 of the last 32 winners had shown good or winning Cheltenham form.
✅ Headgear: Sire Du Berlais (2023) was the first headgear-wearing winner since 1992.
✅ Seasonal Runs: Last 21 winners had no more than 4 runs since October.
✅ Ratings: 17 of the last 21 winners were rated 156+
✅ Hattons Grace Route: Teahupoo (2024) and Sire Du Berlais (2023) were the first winners this century to come from the Hattons Grace.
✅ Cleeve Hurdle Link: 8 of the last 18 winners had run in the Cleeve Hurdle.

🏇 Recent Winners & Trends Analysis

Year	Winner	Age	OR	SP	Trainer	Jockey	Last Race
2024	Teahupoo	7	162	5/4F	G Elliott (IRE)	J Kennedy	1st in Hattons Grace (102 days prior)
2023	Sire De Berlais	11	152	33/1	G Elliott (IRE)	M Walsh	4th in Boyne Hurdle (32 days prior)
2022	Flooring Porter	7	164	4/1	G Cromwell (IRE)	D Mullins	2nd in Leopardstown Xmas Hurdle
2021	Flooring Porter	6	160	12/1	G Cromwell (IRE)	D Mullins	1st in Leopardstown Xmas Hurdle
2020	Lisnagar Oscar	7	146	50/1	R Curtis	A Wedge	3rd in Cleeve Hurdle (47 days prior)
2019	Paisley Park	7	168	11/8F	E Lavelle	A Coleman	1st in Cleeve Hurdle (47 days prior)

📈 Best Bets for Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle 2025 – Top Selections

✅ Teahupoo (3/2)
✅ Won last year’s race — aiming for back-to-back wins.
✅ Top-rated at 164 — comfortably within the winning range.
✅ Proven at Cheltenham and over 3 miles.
✅ Gordon Elliott and Jack Kennedy are proven big-race performers.
💪 Verdict: The horse to beat — fits every key trend and profile.

✅ The Wallpark (7/1)
✅ 7 years old — ideal winning age.
✅ Rated 152 — lightly raced with scope for improvement.
✅ Gordon Elliott’s second string — stable strength is a key factor.
✅ Strong staying form over 3 miles.
💪 Verdict: Potential improver — could upset the favourite.

✅ Lucky Place (7/1)
✅ 6 years old — ideal age profile.
✅ Lightly raced — fits the second-season hurdler trend.
✅ Nicky Henderson trained — looking for his first Stayers’ win since 2000.
✅ Strong Grade 2 form over 3 miles.
💪 Verdict: Ideal profile — trainer form could make the difference.

✅ Home By The Lee (6/1)
✅ Placed in this race last year — proven Cheltenham form.
✅ Won the Leopardstown Xmas Hurdle — key trial for this race.
✅ Joseph O’Brien targets this race with precision.
💪 Verdict: Consistent performer at Grade 1 level — major player.

✅ Mystical Power (16/1)
✅ Trained by Willie Mullins — last won this in 2018.
✅ Paul Townend on board — top jockey.
✅ Lightly raced but improving — rated 154.
💪 Verdict: Could be the Mullins dark horse — interesting at the price.

✅ Rocky’s Diamond (20/1)
✅ 5 years old — rare for a five-year-old to win but has strong form.
✅ Grade 2 winner over 3 miles.
✅ Handles soft and heavy ground well.
💪 Verdict: Outsider with upside — could surprise if stamina holds up.

🚫 Runners to Avoid
❌ Bob Olinger (25/1) – Not the force he once was; trip possibly too stiff.
❌ Ga Law (50/1) – Out of form and exposed at this level.
❌ Franciscan Rock (50/1) – Too exposed and low-rated for a race of this calibre.

💰 Each-Way Value
➡️ The Wallpark (7/1) – Progressive profile and proven stayer.
➡️ Lucky Place (7/1) – Second-season hurdler with ideal profile.
➡️ Mystical Power (16/1) – Could thrive if ground comes up soft.

🔥 Best Trend Fit: Teahupoo
✅ Won last year — aiming for a repeat.
✅ Top-rated and proven over the trip.
✅ Grade 1 winner over 3 miles.
✅ Gordon Elliott and Jack Kennedy — proven Cheltenham combination.

🏆 Top Selection: Teahupoo – Proven champion with the best profile.

💼 Best Each-Way Bet: The Wallpark – Progressive and lightly raced.

🚀 Dark Horse: Lucky Place – Second-season improver with scope.

16:40 - Festival Plate Handicap

The Trustatrader Plate Handicap Chase is a fiercely competitive handicap run over 2m 4½f on the New Course at Cheltenham. It regularly produces big-priced winners and provides one of the biggest betting puzzles of the Festival.

📊 Key Trends & Winning Profile

✅ Age: 10 of the last 13 winners were aged 6 to 9 years.
✅ Experience: 10 of the last 11 winners had no more than 12 previous chase runs.
✅ Weight: Only six of the last 28 winners carried more than 11st.
✅ Official Rating: 11 of the last 12 winners were rated between 140 and 149.
✅ Season Form: Last 10 winners had won earlier that season.
✅ Last Run: 19 of the last 21 winners had run within the last 77 days.
✅ Front-Runners: The last six winners either led or raced prominently.
✅ Graded Form: None of the last 16 winners had previously won a Graded chase.
✅ Course Form: The last six winners had run at Cheltenham earlier that season.
✅ Irish Dominance: Irish-trained horses have won 5 of the last 9 runnings.
✅ Festival Form: 7 of the last 9 winners were making their Festival debut.

🏇 Recent Winners & Trends Analysis

Year	Winner	Age	OR	SP	Trainer	Jockey	Last Race
2024	Shakem Up'Arry	10	143	8/1	B Pauling	B Jones	1st Cheltenham G3 Handicap
2023	Seddon	10	143	20/1	J McConnell (IRE)	B Harvey (5)	1st Leopardstown Handicap
2022	Coole Cody	11	145	22/1	E Williams	A Wedge	7th Cheltenham Handicap
2021	The Shunter	8	140	9/4F	E Mullins (IRE)	J Gainsford (7)	1st Grade 2 Kelso Hurdle
2020	Simply The Betts	7	149	100/30F	H Whittington	G Sheehan	1st Cheltenham Novice Handicap
2019	Siruh du Lac	6	141	9/2	N Williams	L Kelly (3)	1st Cheltenham G3 Handicap

📈 Best Bets for Trustatrader Plate Handicap Chase 2025 – Top Selections

✅ Jagwar (9/2)

✅ 6 years old — ideal age profile.
✅ Lightly raced over fences — just 5 chase starts.
✅ Winner this season — improving profile.
✅ Trained by Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero — strong strike rate in handicaps.
✅ Weighted at 10-10 — ideal weight band for winners.
💪 Verdict: Looks to have the ideal progressive profile of a winner.

✅ Jordans (10/1)

✅ 6 years old — matches the ideal age trend.
✅ 5 chase starts — lightly raced and progressive.
✅ Ran well in graded novice hurdles — key trend match.
✅ Irish-trained — Joseph O’Brien has an excellent Festival record.
✅ Front-runner — could dominate from the front.
💪 Verdict: Ticks every major box — strong win contender.

✅ Masaccio (10/1)

✅ Rated 144 — within the ideal winning range.
✅ Trained by Alan King — knows how to win at Cheltenham.
✅ Consistent form — 3rd last time out in a strong novice chase.
✅ Course form — has run well at Cheltenham.
💪 Verdict: Rock-solid profile with scope for improvement.

✅ An Peann Dearg (16/1)

✅ Improving chaser — won last two starts.
✅ Rated 134 — potentially well handicapped.
✅ Sean O'Keeffe rides — strong strike rate at Cheltenham.
✅ Irish-trained — Irish dominance in recent years.
💪 Verdict: Potentially well treated and could spring a surprise.

✅ Path d'Oroux (14/1)

✅ Trained by Gavin Cromwell — won this race in 2023.
✅ Won over 2m 4f — ideal trip.
✅ Has performed well in Graded races.
✅ Well-handicapped on best form.
💪 Verdict: Dangerous to overlook with an ideal winning profile.

✅ Gemirande (12/1)

✅ Trained by Venetia Williams — 3 winners in this race.
✅ 9 years old — experienced enough without being exposed.
✅ Front-runner — could dominate from the front.
✅ Won over the course and distance — key advantage.
💪 Verdict: Could control the race from the front — major threat.

🚫 Runners to Avoid

❌ Ginny's Destiny (10/1) – Rated too high at 149; too much weight.
❌ Conflated (33/1) – Rated 157 — unlikely to defy a mark this high.
❌ Tahmuras (40/1) – Not progressive enough to win this type of race.
❌ Il Ridoto (25/1) – Exposed type; unlikely to improve enough.
❌ Shakem Up'Arry (25/1) – Last year's winner but older and up in weight.

💰 Each-Way Value

➡️ Jordans (10/1) – Well-handicapped novice with strong claims.
➡️ Masaccio (10/1) – Consistent and has the right profile.
➡️ An Peann Dearg (16/1) – Progressive and could still be well-treated.

🔥 Best Trend Fit: Jagwar
✅ Progressive novice with an ideal profile.
✅ Won this season — improving with every run.
✅ Lightly raced — ideal for this race type.

🏆 Top Selection: Jagwar – Progressive novice with a winning profile.

💼 Best Each-Way Bet: Jordans – Strong form in graded races; well-handicapped.

🚀 Dark Horse: An Peann Dearg – Strong Irish-trained contender with improving form.

✅ Conclusion:

The Trustatrader Plate has a strong focus on improving, lightly raced chasers from top yards. The combination of course form, recent winning form, and novice status is key. Jagwar looks like the ideal type to win this, while Jordans and Masaccio offer strong each-way value.

17:20 - Kim Muir Handicap Chase

The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir is a 3m 2f handicap chase for amateur riders on the New Course at Cheltenham. It’s one of the most competitive staying handicap chases of the Festival, with strong trends to follow and key stats pointing to potential value picks.

📊 Key Trends & Winning Profile

✅ Age: 17 of the last 20 winners were aged 7, 8, or 9 years.
✅ Experience: The last six winners were novices (fewer than 10 chase starts).
✅ BHA Rating: 11 of the last 13 winners were rated between 137 and 145.
✅ Weight: Most winners carried between 11st 0lb and 11st 12lb.
✅ Season Form: The last 20 winners had at least two runs that season.
✅ Form: 15 of the last 19 winners recorded their highest Racing Post Rating (RPR) in their last two runs.
✅ Last Run: Only two of the last 22 winners won their previous race.
✅ Amateur Jockeys: Irish amateurs have won 8 of the last 10 runnings.
✅ Big Price or Market Leader: 8 of the last 10 winners went off at SP 10/1 or shorter.
✅ No Professional Jockeys: Professional jockeys only rode due to COVID in 2021 — this race belongs to top amateurs.

🏇 Recent Winners & Trends Analysis

Year	Winner	Age	OR	SP	Trainer	Jockey	Last Run
2024	Inothewayurthinkin	6	145	13/8F	G Cromwell (IRE)	D O'Connor	9th G3 Leopardstown (39)
2023	Angels Dawn	9	131	10/1	S Curling (IRE)	P A King	U Punchestown Trial (25)
2022	Chambard	10	134	40/1	V Williams	L Turner (3)	1st Nov H'cap (11)
2021	Mount Ida	7	142	3/1F	Mrs D Foster (IRE)	J Kennedy	2nd Thurles G2 (50)
2020	Milan Native	7	141	9/1	G Elliott (IRE)	R James (7)	2nd Gowran Beginners Chase (26)
2019	Any Second Now	7	143	6/1	T Walsh (IRE)	D O'Connor	3rd G2 Nov Chase (25)

📈 Best Bets for Kim Muir 2025 – Top Selections

✅ Johnnywho (5/1)

✅ 8 years old — ideal age profile.
✅ Rated 140 — within the ideal winning range.
✅ Ridden by Derek O'Connor — elite amateur with two wins in this race.
✅ Placing Consistency — placed in three of last four runs.
✅ Strong Irish Form — Irish amateurs have a dominant record in this race.
💪 Verdict: Perfectly fits the profile of a Kim Muir winner and has the right jockey.

✅ Sa Majeste (9/1)

✅ 7 years old — matches the ideal age trend.
✅ Trained by Willie Mullins — still looking for his first Kim Muir winner, but class counts.
✅ Only 5 chase starts — ideal for a novice profile.
✅ Ridden by Patrick Mullins — top amateur with huge Festival success.
💪 Verdict: Progressive novice from the best yard — very strong chance.

✅ Midnight Our Fred (9/1)

✅ 8 years old — ideal age profile.
✅ Rating of 132 — a bit low but progressive.
✅ Ridden by N McParlan — experienced amateur.
✅ Good seasonal form — second and first last two runs.
💪 Verdict: Well-handicapped, consistent, and has the right jockey.

✅ Music Of Tara (20/1)

✅ 8 years old — ideal age.
✅ Gordon Elliott-trained — excellent record in this race.
✅ Best RPR last two runs — indicates good form.
✅ Ridden by Rob James — experienced Festival-winning jockey.
💪 Verdict: Excellent value for an Elliott-trained improver.

✅ Westerninthepark (20/1)

✅ 7 years old — right age profile.
✅ Lightly raced novice — just 5 chase starts.
✅ Good seasonal form — first and second last two runs.
✅ Ridden by James King — experienced amateur.
💪 Verdict: Novice with upside — fits the winning profile.

🚫 Runners to Avoid

❌ Fantastic Lady (22/1) – Too old at 10 and carries top weight.
❌ Gelino Bello (40/1) – Paul Nicholls has a poor record in this race.
❌ Johnnywho (5/1) – Well-handicapped but may face pressure from other prominent novices.
❌ Pats Fancy (50/1) – Out of form and too exposed.
❌ Manothepeople (40/1) – Exposed type, unlikely to improve enough to win.

💰 Each-Way Value

➡️ Music Of Tara (20/1) – Elliott-trained and improving.
➡️ Westerninthepark (20/1) – Consistent novice with a winning profile.
➡️ Sa Majeste (9/1) – Classy novice with a top amateur.

🔥 Best Trend Fit: Johnnywho
✅ Ideal age
✅ Proven over the trip
✅ Irish-trained with a top amateur jockey

🏆 Top Selection: Johnnywho – Ideal mix of experience and class.

💼 Best Each-Way Bet: Music Of Tara – Well-handicapped Irish-trained horse.

🚀 Dark Horse: Westerninthepark – Novice with strong form and improvement potential.

✅ Conclusion:

The Kim Muir traditionally suits progressive, lightly raced novices from top yards. Irish-trained horses have dominated in recent years, especially with top amateur jockeys like Derek O’Connor and Jamie Codd. Johnnywho ticks every box and looks a class above the rest. Sa Majeste and Midnight Our Fred also have strong claims, while Music Of Tara could represent excellent each-way value.

Until next time,

Ben

Punthub, Your Trusted Tipster Marketplace.

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