Pete's Paddock Picks
The service has shown promise in its first few days of testing with 5 wins from 6 selections and has been around since 2022. Brilliantly titled Petes Paddock Picks:
December 2024 ended: +£44.78
Year 2024 finished: +£364.90
Year 2023 finished: +£469.27
Results to £1 stakes
2:00 pm Cheltenham – Pic Rock (Each-Way) & Springwell Bay (Each-Way)
Pic Rock (Each-Way) was just 1.5 lengths behind Lord Of Thunder at Newbury over nearly three miles, and although
he’s only 3 lbs better off this time, I think he can reverse the form over this intermediate trip in a competitive 2m 4f novice handicap chase.
He’s yet to win over fences in three starts, and his weak finishing effort at Exeter two starts ago was disappointing. However, he looked much more like himself at Newbury, showing that a left-handed track suits him well.
The 2 lb rise in the weights since that Newbury run is manageable, and while he
lacks course experience, I believe he’s got significant improvement in him over fences. The 12/1 available at the time of writing looks fair for a horse from a stable that knows how to win at the Festival.
Asian Master steps up in trip after being beaten by 6 lengths in a soft-ground point-to-point by Fact To File. He could improve for the distance, but his regular jockey Tom Costello has never ridden a chase winner under rules, which makes him difficult to back with
confidence.
Springwell Bay (Each-Way) finished second to Jango Baie here in December, conceding 8 lbs to the winner, who went on to land the Arkle on Tuesday. Springwell Bay has since won from an 8 lbs lower mark and now faces a slight rise in the weights.
He looks like a graded horse running in a handicap, and I expect him to confirm the form with Caldwell Potter, even though the latter still has long-term potential.
Selections:
- Pic Rock (Each-Way) – 12/1 with BetVictor (5 places)
- Springwell Bay (Each-Way) – 10/1 with Bet365 (5 places)
2:40 pm Cheltenham – Zain Nights (Each-Way)
Zain Nights comes to life at this time of year and ran well on unsuitable soft ground at Huntingdon last time in a qualifier for this race.
The better ground expected for the Pertemps Final should suit him perfectly.
He’s only 2 lbs higher than when winning a valuable 3m handicap hurdle at Haydock last spring on good ground. His ability to stay and handle a sound surface gives him a solid chance here.
Charlie Deutsch takes over the ride, which is a positive booking, but I’ll be monitoring how the track is riding after snow and sleet hit Cheltenham on Wednesday. The 33/1 available
on Tuesday afternoon looks a big price for a horse well suited to the trip and conditions.
Doddiethegreat is the main threat, but he’s been bumped up 5 lbs since his last run at Haydock in cheekpieces. Jeriko Du Reponet is another danger, but in such a competitive race, Zain Nights represents value.
Selection:
- Zain Nights (Each-Way) – 33/1 with William Hill (6 places)
3:20 pm Cheltenham – Jungle Boogie (Each-Way)
I backed Jungle Boogie (Each-Way) at 16/1 for the Ryanair when the firms introduced NRNB (non-runner no bet) terms. However, the presence of Fact To File and Il Est Francais makes this a tougher task.
Fact To File is the likeliest winner but may struggle to cope with the faster ground and shorter trip. He has a tendency to edge right at his fences,
which might be exposed under pressure.
Il Est Francais has the potential to blow the race apart from the front, but handling Cheltenham’s undulations is a question mark.
Protektorat won this race last year but prefers softer ground. Envoi Allen, a previous winner of this race, will be dangerous with Rachael Blackmore on board, but he was beaten 4 lengths by Protektorat last year.
Jungle Boogie was traveling as well
as any horse (apart from Galopin Des Champs) when making a bad error in last year’s Gold Cup. His only run since was a win in a Graduation Chase at Ascot, and although he jumped left that day, he got the job done.
This is a deep race, but Jungle Boogie’s class and ability to handle Cheltenham’s demands make him an appealing each-way option.
Selection:
- Jungle Boogie (Each-Way) – 16/1 advised (now
14/1 with BetFred)
4:00 pm Cheltenham – Teahupoo (Nap)
There’s no clear pace angle in the Stayers’ Hurdle, which is a concern for The Wallpark, but a sound surface will help him.
Home By The Lee was well beaten by Teahupoo in this race last year and at Punchestown later in the season. The 8-year-old was also beaten by Lossiemouth at Fairyhouse over 2m4f in the
Hatton’s Grace, but that form now looks strong after Lossiemouth’s Mares’ Hurdle win on Tuesday.
Teahupoo’s fresh record is outstanding, and Gordon Elliott has clearly targeted him at this race. He handles all ground types but would have preferred the snow and sleet that hit Cheltenham on Wednesday to turn it softer.
He’s been overlooked in the market, but I expect him to deliver a strong performance and reclaim his crown.
Selection:
- Teahupoo (Nap) – 6/4 with Bet365
4:40 pm Cheltenham – Jagwar & Masaccio
Jagwar swerved the Novice Handicap Chase to tackle this more competitive race against experienced opposition, which is a bold move.
He’s won three of his four chase starts, including over course and distance from a 7
lbs lower mark. He may lack experience in a big field, but if there’s a graded horse in this race, it’s Jagwar. Off a mark of 139, he’s still well treated.
Jonjo O’Neill Jr. is booked, and if he can keep Jagwar out of trouble, his finishing kick should come into play late on.
Masaccio is 6 lbs better off with Jagwar after finishing behind him on Trials Day. He’s fitted with cheekpieces for the first time, which could sharpen
him up. Masaccio has Graded form to his name, and Alan King’s decision to target this race rather than the Novice Handicap suggests confidence.
Selections:
- Jagwar – 4/1 with Coral
- Masaccio – 10/1 with Bet365
5:20 pm Cheltenham – Walking On Air & Git Maker
Walking On Air fell at the last when
looking the likely winner in the Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster. He’s been raised 4 lbs for that run but is still 9 lbs lower than when finishing fifth in the Pertemps Final two years ago.
He’s now trained by Gary Brown, who has had two winners from his last three runners. Although Alan O’Sullivan is inexperienced, his 5 lbs claim will help, and Walking On Air is the best-handicapped horse in the race.
Git Maker was
second in this race last year and is only 1 lb higher now. He was fourth at Haydock over 3m4f in his prep run, which should put him spot on for this. Cheekpieces go on for the first time, and Will Biddick is back in the saddle after giving him a top-class ride last year.
Selections:
- Walking On Air – 7/1 with Bet365
- Git Maker – 14/1 with Betfred
