Cheltenham Day 3 - Betting Guide, Key Trends & Expert Predictions

With this being the final day for the stats & trends I want to share my thanks to the excellent Bryan Gault, without him this preview would probably be shit.

https://www.gaultstats.com/

"Gaultstats 2025 will be my final edition. It's been fun, thanks, but it's time for someone else"

Due to personal circumstances, I originally thought of asking for donations towards the British Heart Foundation. My thanks to those who had already given. But due to the tragic events surrounding Michael O'Sullivan, I am now asking for donations to the Irish Injured Jockeys Fund.  We sometimes forget the daily risks these young men and women take for our entertainment. From what I've seen and read, Michael was a wonderful lad. My heart goes out to his family and friends. He definitely was a fine jockey and a stats breaker by winning the Grade 1 Supreme when still claiming 3lb. Not quickly forgotten as he then fulfilled Momentum Theory by taking the Boodles on Jazzy Matty that Tuesday in 2023. Two great rides. I feel privileged to have been present. Well done to Skybet for allowing the 2025 Supreme to be renamed in his honour. The idonate link is below.  

Please be generous.  All credit/debit cards taken. Nothing goes to me or Gstats.  

https://www.idonate.ie/fundraiser/BryanGault

13:20 - Triumph Hurdle

The JCB Triumph Hurdle is the leading juvenile hurdle race at Cheltenham, held over 2 miles and a furlong. Key trainers like N Henderson (7 wins) and W Mullins (4 of the last 5) dominate this race. Fillies under 14/1 have a strong record, with 5 winners from 26 runners. Lightly raced horses with strong recent form tend to thrive.

📊 Key Trends & Winning Profile
✅ Trainer Impact: N Henderson – 7 winners since 1985, W Mullins – 4 of last 5.
✅ Form Stamina: 17 of last 18 flat runners raced at 1m4f+.
✅ Recency: 26 of last 26 winners ran 18–55 days prior.
✅ Last Run: 10 of last 12 not outside top 2 in GB/IRE hurdles.
✅ Market Guide: 15 of last 20 from front four in the market.
✅ Odds-On Rarity: Only one odds-on winner since 1974.
✅ Hurdle Starts: Only two of last 17 had over three hurdle runs.
✅ Age Profile: 4-year-olds dominate this race.

🏇 Recent Winners & Trends Analysis

🔍 Key Takeaways:
✅ Proven form over 2m4f is critical.
✅ Horses rated 138–155 have the best strike rate.
✅ Lightly raced novices with 3–4 chase runs are key.
✅ The market is usually a decent guide – no winner in the last 10 years bigger than 12/1.
✅ Horses that won or placed last time out are preferred.
✅ Five-year-olds struggle unless particularly well-handicapped.

🎯 Expert Verdict: Who to Bet On?
The key profile is a 4-year-old, with strong recent form over a similar trip, rated between 138 and 155. Horses with experience in big fields and at Cheltenham (or similarly undulating tracks) are particularly strong contenders.

📈 Best Bets for JCB Triumph Hurdle 2025 – Top Selections

✅ East India Dock
✅ Rated 146 – Ideal for this race.
✅ Strong novice hurdle form.
✅ Big field experience.
💪 Verdict: Solid contender – ticks most of the key trends.

✅ Hello Neighbour
✅ Experienced in strong fields.
✅ Proven over 2m4f+.
✅ Ideal age and rating.
💪 Verdict: Top class – Looks the most likely winner.

✅ Sainte Lucie
✅ Trained by W Mullins – Strong Festival record.
✅ Good recent form.
✅ Each-way value.
💪 Verdict: Each-way player – Strong recent form.

🚫 Runners to Avoid
❌ Opec – Poor recent form.
❌ Pappano – Lacks experience over fences.
❌ Place De La Nation – Low rating and inconsistent.

💰 Each-Way Value
➡️ Lulamba (14/1) – Progressive novice – Unexposed over trip.
➡️ Sainte Lucie (10/1) – Class form, could improve further.
➡️ Hello Neighbour (8/1) – Ideal OR, big-field form.

✅ Best Trend Fit: East India Dock
✅ Perfect age profile.
✅ OR of 146 – Ideal for a novice hurdle.
✅ Experience in Graded races.
✅ Strong form over 2m4f.

🏆 Top Selection: East India Dock – Best profile fit and ideal OR.
💼 Best Each-Way Bet: Sainte Lucie – Well-handicapped and improving.
🚀 Dark Horse: Hello Neighbour – Potential to surprise.

14:00 - County Hurdle

The William Hill County Handicap Hurdle is a highly competitive 2m1f race, with W Mullins (7 wins) and D Skelton (4 wins) dominating in recent years. Novices and second-season hurdlers have an excellent record, with 18 of the last 21 winners fitting this profile. Horses aged 5 or 6 tend to thrive, especially those with a strong recent RPR and form over similar trips.

📊 Key Trends & Winning Profile
✅ Trainer Impact: W Mullins (7 wins) and D Skelton (4 wins).
✅ Age Profile: 5 and 6-year-olds dominate.
✅ Form: 16 of the last 19 winners had a best RPR within last three runs.
✅ Headgear: Only Arctic Fire has won wearing headgear in the last 15 years.
✅ Market Guide: 4 of last 24 winners were outright favourites.
✅ Experience: Horses rated between 134–139 (unless Mullins/Skelton).
✅ Hurdle Runs: No more than 19 previous runs over hurdles.
✅ BF Last Time: No last-time-out beaten favourites have won since 2013.

🏇 Recent Winners & Trends Analysis

🔍 Key Takeaways:
✅ Lightly raced novices thrive.
✅ Best RPR last 3 runs = key.
✅ W Mullins & D Skelton dominate.
✅ Beaten favourites = poor record.
✅ 5- or 6-year-olds strongest.
✅ Headgear is rare.

🎯 Expert Verdict: Who to Bet On?
The ideal profile is a 5 or 6-year-old, lightly raced novice or second-season hurdler, trained by W Mullins or D Skelton, with a strong recent RPR and no more than 19 hurdle starts.

📈 Best Bets for William Hill County Handicap Hurdle 2025 – Top Selections

✅ Absurde
✅ Defending champ, classy flat form.
✅ Ideal OR and age.
✅ Proven at Cheltenham.
💪 Verdict: Major contender.

✅ Kargese
✅ Strong novice form.
✅ Last RPR shows progression.
💪 Verdict: Likely to be primed for this.

✅ McLaurey
✅ Well-handicapped, improving.
✅ Leopardstown win key form.
💪 Verdict: Each-way value.

🚫 Runners to Avoid
❌ Fils d'Oudairies – Poor recent form.
❌ Irish Panther – Below ideal OR and form.
❌ Norman Fletcher – Inconsistent form.

💰 Each-Way Value
➡️ Ethical Diamond (16/1) – Novice with upside.
➡️ McLaurey (7/1) – Improving with big win last time.
➡️ Hansard (14/1) – Consistent in top company.

✅ Best Trend Fit: Absurde
✅ Best RPR within last 3 runs.
✅ Ideal OR and age.
✅ Big-field experience.
💪 Verdict: Strongest profile fit.

🏆 Top Selection: Absurde – Defending champion, ideal profile.
💼 Best Each-Way Bet: McLaurey – Improving and value price.
🚀 Dark Horse: Kargese – Could surprise at strong odds.

14:40 - Mares Chase

Year five. To be won by the Irish, but that's hardly rocket science. Now moved up to race three on Gold Cup day, so maybe more people will pay attention to it. Still a pity that Paddypower trivialise the race with the name. 

📊 Key Trends & Winning Profile
✅ Trainer Impact: Irish dominance (Mullins, Cromwell).
✅ Form: Won last time out (post-Christmas) in at least Listed class.
✅ Age: 7 or 8-year-olds have a strong record.
✅ Course Form: Placed at Cheltenham or proven at 2m4f.
✅ Rating: BHA rating of at least 147-155.
✅ Market: Second or third favourite often wins.

🏇 Recent Winners & Trends Analysis

🔍 Key Takeaways:
✅ Proven over 2m4f.
✅ Top trainers (Mullins, Cromwell).
✅ Won or placed in a similar race.
✅ Strong market support.
✅ Best RPR within last three runs.

🎯 Expert Verdict: Who to Bet On?
The ideal profile is a 7 or 8-year-old, top-rated mare trained by W Mullins or G Cromwell, with a recent win over 2m4f or placed at Cheltenham.

📈 Best Bets for Mrs Paddy Power Mares' Chase 2025 – Top Selections

✅ Dinoblue
✅ Best form and top-rated.
✅ Proven over the trip.
💪 Verdict: Clear favourite.

✅ Limerick Lace
✅ Defending champion.
✅ Perfect prep.
💪 Verdict: Major threat.

✅ Allegorie De Vassy
✅ Proven at Cheltenham.
✅ Strong form last time out.
💪 Verdict: Key Mullins contender.

🚫 Runners to Avoid
❌ Fontaine Collonges – Poor recent form.
❌ Je T'Ai Porte – Overmatched at this level.
❌ Mayhem Mya – Unproven over the trip.

💰 Each-Way Value
➡️ Shecouldbeanything (16/1) – Improving mare.
➡️ Brides Hill (13/2) – Classy and consistent.

✅ Best Trend Fit: Dinoblue
✅ Ideal age and form.
✅ Proven over the trip.
✅ Strong prep run.
💪 Verdict: Leading chance.

🏆 Top Selection: Dinoblue – Perfect profile.
💼 Best Each-Way Bet: Brides Hill – Strong form at the trip.
🚀 Dark Horse: Shecouldbeanything – Could spring a surprise.

15:20 - Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

The Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle is a Grade 1 race over 3 miles for novice hurdlers at the Cheltenham Festival. Known for its demanding distance and competitive field, it often produces future staying champions. Irish-trained horses have dominated recently, with 5 of the last 6 winners coming from Ireland. The race tends to favour 6- and 7-year-olds with at least three runs over hurdles, proven stamina over 2m7f+, and solid Graded form. Priced winners are typically 10/1 or higher, with favourites struggling.

📊 Key Trends & Winning Profile
✅ Trainer Impact: Irish-trained dominance (5 of last 6).
✅ Age: 17 of last 19 winners aged 6 or 7.
✅ Form: 11 of last 14 winners placed over 2m7f+ in hurdles.
✅ Experience: At least 3 hurdle runs.
✅ Rating: BHA rating 140+.
✅ Market: 10 of last 11 winners priced 10/1+.

🏇 Recent Winners & Trends Analysis

🔍 Key Takeaways:
✅ Proven over 2m7f+ preferred.
✅ Irish-trained or strong British course form.
✅ Likely 6 or 7 years old.
✅ Last-time-out Grade 1 or 2 place or win.
✅ Avoid favourites unless Graded placed at 3m.

🎯 Expert Verdict: Who to Bet On?
The ideal profile is a 6 or 7-year-old, Irish-trained, rated 140+, with a win or place over 2m7f+, and proven form in Graded company.

📈 Best Bets for Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle 2025 – Top Selections

✅ The Big Westerner
✅ Perfect age and profile.
✅ Strong win last time over 2m7f.
💪 Verdict: Leading chance.

✅ Wingmen
✅ Grade 1 second over 2m6f.
✅ Proven stayer.
💪 Verdict: Strong contender.

✅ Jet Blue
✅ Course form and proven over trip.
✅ High RPR.
💪 Verdict: Big player.

🚫 Runners to Avoid
❌ Port Joulain – Lacks depth of form.
❌ Sounds Victorius – Exposed at this level.
❌ Fishery Lane – Stamina doubts.

💰 Each-Way Value
➡️ Jasmin De Vaux (9/1) – Bumper winner; could relish 3m.
➡️ Wendigo (9/1) – Proven stamina and high class.

✅ Best Trend Fit: The Big Westerner
✅ Ideal age and form.
✅ Won at 2m7f.
💪 Verdict: Top-class stayer.

🏆 Top Selection: The Big Westerner – Meets all key stats.
💼 Best Each-Way Bet: Wingmen – Graded form over trip.
🚀 Dark Horse: Jasmin De Vaux – Could surprise at a price.

16:00 - Gold Cup

The Cheltenham Gold Cup is a Grade 1 chase over 3m 2½f, the highlight of the Festival. It often rewards second-season chasers aged 7 to 9 with a BHA rating of 164+. Proven stamina and Festival form are key, with 17 of the last 18 winners rated 164+ and 10 of the last 11 having strong previous Festival form. Favourites have won 4 of the last 5, but big-priced placers are common.

📊 Key Trends & Winning Profile
✅ Age: 7 to 9 years old.
✅ Rating: 164+ BHA rating.
✅ Experience: No more than three chase runs that season.
✅ Form: Strong Festival or Grade 1 form.
✅ Odds: Most winners under 10/1, but big-priced horses often place.
✅ Fitness: At least 31 days off before the race.

🏇 Recent Winners & Trends Analysis

🔍 Key Takeaways
✅ Must have strong Grade 1 form.
✅ Likely aged 7–9.
✅ Top-class staying chasers perform well.
✅ Proven Festival form is key.

🎯 Best Bets for Cheltenham Gold Cup 2025 – Top Selections

🚫 Runners to Avoid
❌ Ahoy Senor – Poor recent form; age against him.
❌ Royale Pagaille – Best days behind him; struggles at Cheltenham.
❌ Gentlemansgame – Below par at this level.

💰 Each-Way Value
➡️ Banbridge (5/1) – Ideal profile, improving with each run.
➡️ Inothewayurthinkin (15/2) – Second-season chaser; scope to improve.

✅ Best Trend Fit: Galopin Des Champs – Meets every key stat; hard to oppose.
💪 Verdict: Likely winner; historic treble in sight.
💼 Best Each-Way Bet: Banbridge – Proven Grade 1 stayer.
🚀 Dark Horse: Inothewayurthinkin – Could spring a surprise.

16:40 - St James's Place Hunters' Chase

The St. James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup is a 3m 2½f chase for amateur riders. Horses aged 10 and 11 dominate, winning 9 of the last 10. Course form is vital, and experienced hunters with solid pointing form tend to thrive. Favourites have struggled, with big-priced winners common. Irish-trained horses are often overbet but remain competitive.

📊 Key Trends & Winning Profile
✅ Age: 10 or 11 years old preferred.
✅ Experience: At least 12 chases under rules or unbeaten in hunter chases.
✅ Last Race: Top 3 finish last time.
✅ Course Form: Proven Cheltenham form.
✅ Jockey: Lady jockeys excel.
✅ Market: Winners come from a wide range of odds.

🏇 Recent Winners & Trends Analysis

🔍 Key Takeaways
✅ 10 or 11 years old strongly favoured.
✅ Course form essential.
✅ Winners often have point-to-point success.
✅ Big-priced winners common.

🎯 Best Bets for St. James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup 2025 – Top Selections

✅ Best Trend Fit: Its On The Line – Meets all key stats; rock-solid profile.
💪 Verdict: Top-class stayer; strong chance to go one better.
💼 Best Each-Way Bet: Willitgoahead – Progressive and dangerous.
🚀 Dark Horse: Shearer – Trainer/jockey combination strong.

🚫 Runners to Avoid
❌ Au Fleuron – No realistic chance on form.
❌ Go On Chez – Poor form and stamina doubts.
❌ Lisleigh Lad – Out of his depth in this company.

💰 Each-Way Value
➡️ Willitgoahead (5/1) – Fast improving and in top hands.
➡️ Shearer (10/1) – Progressive and in great form.

17:20 - Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle

The Martin Pipe is one of the most challenging handicaps of the Festival — a brutal 2m 4½f test with 24 runners, where plotting a winner requires unpicking trends, trainer intentions, and jockey bookings. Favourites have struggled over the years (just one winning since 2011), but certain patterns and profiles stand out.

🔍 Key Stats and Trends

✅ Age: 14 of the last 16 winners were aged 5 or 6.
✅ Weight: All winners carried 11st 1lb or more; horses carrying 11st or less are 0-109 since the race began.
✅ Runs Over Hurdles: 14 of the last 16 had 8 hurdle runs or fewer.
✅ Winning Profile: 14 of the last 16 winners had won a hurdle race with at least 11 runners.
✅ Graded Form: 13 of the last 16 winners had previously run in a Graded race.
✅ Last Time Out: 12 of the last 14 winners finished in the first three in their last race.
✅ Recency: All bar one of the last 14 winners had run within 62 days.

🚨 Trainer & Jockey Insights

• Gordon Elliott – 3 wins + multiple placings; plots horses perfectly for this.
• Willie Mullins – 4 wins; often sends novices who are Graded-level.
• Joseph O'Brien – 2 wins; excels with unexposed types.
• Paul Nicholls – 2 wins; targets it selectively but effectively.
• Gigginstown – 4 wins from 19 runners; often well-backed with strong novice form.

Jockey experience is key — the last six winning jockeys had all ridden at least 30 winners beforehand. The race has increasingly become a pro's race rather than one for inexperienced claimers.

🔥 Likely Race Shape

The race typically features a strong early pace with closers benefiting from stamina late on. Blow By Blow (2018) and Galopin Des Champs (2021) were prominent throughout, but many other winners have produced their runs late, coming from midfield or off the pace. Front-runners struggle unless they are exceptional — this is a race for grinders and strong finishers.

🌟 Top Contenders

🥇 Kopeck De Mee (9/4) – Willie Mullins' unbeaten French import. Has a progressive profile, top trainer, and solid stamina. The right age and weight. Big player.

🥈 Wodhooh (5/1) – Gordon Elliott's mare is 6-6 over hurdles, including a Cheltenham win this season. Danny Gilligan, who’s had over 40 wins, rides — ticks every box.

🥉 Taponthego (10/1) – Henry de Bromhead’s gelding has strong novice form and a win over 2m 4f. Lightly raced but has stamina and class.

No Ordinary Joe (11/1) – Nicky Henderson’s runner was second off a higher mark in this race last year. Has been aimed at this all season.

💰 Best Each-Way Plays

East India Express (11/1) – Two from two in handicaps and still open to improvement. Won well at Kempton last time out.
Minella Sixo (20/1) – Solid Cheltenham form, fell last time but consistent otherwise. Could hit the frame if things go right.

❌ Potential Weaknesses

❌ Beaten Favourites Last Time – No horse beaten as a favourite last time has won this. That rules out a few of the shorter-priced runners.
❌ Low Weights – 0-109 for horses carrying 11st or less — significant negative trend for bottom weights.

💡 Final Thought

This race screams Gordon Elliott vs Willie Mullins. Kopeck De Mee’s class and Wodhooh’s unbeaten profile give them the edge, but Taponthego and East India Express offer value. Expect a close finish, with stamina and jockey strength key in the final climb up the Cheltenham hill.