Pete's Paddock Picks
The service has shown promise in its first few days of testing with 5 wins from 6 selections and has been around since 2022. Brilliantly titled Petes Paddock Picks:
December 2024 ended: +£44.78
Year 2024 finished: +£364.90
12.12 Ffos Las
DUNSKAY has missed a couple of engagements in recent days with the abandonments, but he makes his belated hurdles debut for Ben Pauling this afternoon.
A winner of two of his three Bumpers – reported to not be quite right when disappointing at Ascot – he had a wind operation back in September but is one of a
number of promising novices in the care of Pauling. Indeed, the stable also entered the talented Roysse for this maiden hurdle but they have decided on Dunskay to be their representative.
Evan Williams saddles Juby Ball another making a belated seasonal and hurdles debut. A soft ground Bumper winner here first time out last season, he lost nothing in defeat when beaten 3L – giving the winner 4lbs – by Pauling’s Sixmilebridge. The
latter has won two of his three starts over timber this term, but connections should know where they stand with Juby Ball.
Those with experience over hurdles do not set an insurmountable standard although there are some very big yards represented with unexposed sorts. French import Lud’or has run well in both starts and returns to the minimum trio having finished second over an additional half mile at Uttoxeter last time.
Recommendation: Dunskay at 15/8
12.42 Ffos Las
Juventus De Brion is likely to be a warm order in the 2m 4f Maiden Hurdle having finished second to a useful sort of Paul Nicholls at Chepstow last time. He has had a wind operation in the intervening period and is fitted with a tongue tie for his first start in over ten weeks.
The vote,
however, goes to the mare JASMINE BLISS who may have bumped into a smart sort when beaten a length by Nicky Henderson’s Holloway Queen at Lingfield on her hurdles debut at the end of November. The winner has subsequently landed a listed contest at Haydock by 15l.
The mare was a dual Bumper winner and trainer Harry Derham has stated publicly that he believes his inmate is at least listed class. With the stable in excellent form Jasmine
Bliss gets the vote in receipt of 7lbs from the geldings.
Recommendation: Jasmine Bliss nap at 11/10
3.31 Ffos Las
The 2m handicap chase is a belter and there is plenty of pace in the race. Keep Running is likely to jump left and for that reason alone is overlooked although he will be up with the gallop. Beat Box has been very well
placed by Dan Skelton and looks to have every chance of defying a 10lbs rise for his latest fluent success at Kelso and a mark of 130 still looks fair.
OSTRAVA DU BERLAIS has won a couple of egg and spoon races, and this represents a big step up- in grade, but she is progressing nicely over fences and will carry just 10st 6lbs. She gets the vote despite being raised 18lbs for those two facile successes – 23lbs if you include Ned Fox’s claim who is
replaced by Charlie Deutsch this afternoon for Venetia Williams.
Her wins have come on decent ground on right-hand tracks, but she did not jump to her right at Taunton last time and did run well at Chepstow over hurdles last season before her stamina gave way. She may still be ahead of the handicapper.
Recommendation: Ostrava Du Berlais at 2/1
2.00
Newcastle
Midnight Lion had a few of these behind when making all under a canny Kaiya Fraser ride over C&D at the beginning of the month. He has now won two of his last three starts but he has been raised 5lbs for his latest win and Fraser claimed 3lbs on that occasion.
Paul Mulrennan takes the ride this afternoon, so Jim Goldie’s inform 5-y-old is effectively 8lbs higher in the weights. He does stay further
than this ten-furlong trip which is a positive and is the one to beat although he may struggle to confirm recent course form with stablemate Alpine Sierra and URBAN ROAD, and it is the latter who gets the each way vote.
Alpine Sierra was sent off 5/4 favourite when beaten 4L, having pulled hard and finished tamely, behind Midnight Lion last time but he is 11lbs better off this afternoon if you include the 3lb claim of Amie Waugh. The
track was riding deep on Wednesday – this is being written ahead of Friday’s meeting at the track – and I just wonder if he will have the necessary stamina on what looks sure to be a slow surface.
Urban Road was another given plenty to do behind Midnight Lion last time, but he finished well, and I hope to see Rowan Scott race more prominently on the ew selection whose last seven starts have all been over today’s C&D. He must defy a career high mark if he is
to prevail but, in the hope that Mulrennan does not get a soft time on the lead, Urban Road is taken to reward each way support.
Recommendation: Urban Road at 15/2
The feature race is the G2 Towton Chase transferred from Wetherby, and it is a tremendous renewal and worth the admission fee alone. If forced to make a recommendation it would be the chase maiden Saint
Davy, but it is a race best watched.
Carlton did us a favour at Chelmsford on Thursday, and he should follow up under a 5lbs penalty. He is likely to be sent off at odds on, however, given the ease of his midweek victory.
