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The Core Idea

The model is built to find races where the numbers clearly point to one horse being much stronger or weaker than the rest.

If a horse looks weak compared to its rivals but still short in the betting → it becomes a Lay bet (we bet against it).

If a horse looks much stronger than the rest and at a fair price → it becomes a Win bet (we back it).

If the gap between horses isn’t clear, the model simply skips the race.

After a week of reflection I think the Gap 12 Lays suit email / manual betting clients far more than the 10 or 7 variants (more volume). I will stick with 12 for emails - less bets, more precise.

Todays win & Lay selections:

WIN Selections
• 13:17 Uttox - — Aworkinprogress
• 13:35 Navan - — Ill Sort That

LAY GAP Selections
I spent time last night looking at the Gap 7 (sicne that version has all of the bets) and it appears if we remove all handicap races the model is much better.

Handicaps 901 lays and -27

Non-handicaps 264 lays +44.53

So based on this I think it's better if I stick with non handicaps for all 3 variations

For today that leaves:

LAY GAP 7 Selections
• 12:35 Chelt - — Parchment
• 12:50 Weth - — Get On George
• 13:35 Navan - — Ace Brannigan
• 14:10 Navan - — Jetara
• 14:27 Uttox - — U S Marshall
• 14:45 Navan - — Marine Nationale
• 15:10 Weth - — Lirone Du Seuil
• 15:20 Navan - — Lovely Hurling
• 16:00 Chelt - — Eremenko

LAY GAP 10 Selections
• 12:35 Chelt - — Parchment
• 12:50 Weth - — Get On George
• 13:35 Navan - — Ace Brannigan
• 14:27 Uttox - — U S Marshall
• 15:10 Weth - — Lirone Du Seuil
• 15:20 Navan - — Lovely Hurling
• 16:00 Chelt - — Eremenko

LAY GAP 12 Selections
• 12:35 Chelt - — Parchment
• 13:35 Navan - — Ace Brannigan
• 15:10 Weth - — Lirone Du Seuil
• 15:20 Navan - — Lovely Hurling
• 16:00 Chelt - — Eremenko

Note: I do not lay over 10.0, bets are fired automatically at 60 seconds pre race and my results are based on this only.