Today we have 2 games of interest, one in the lower Dutch league where lots of reserves / youth sides of the big teams generally play, and it's a league absolutely full of goals as you'll soon see.
Dutch Eerste Division (equivalent of Dutch championship)
7pm kick off
Helmond Sport v Jong Ajax
BTTS yes at 1.62
The numbers tell a clear story: Jong Ajax can’t defend away from home (2.43 goals conceded per away game!) but they’re still managing to score (1.29 per game). Helmond is strong at home offensively (1.88 per game) but also leaky (1.5 conceded).
So we’ve got:
• A home team that scores well but
concedes
• An away team that’s defensively awful but still finds the net
That’s the perfect recipe for BTTS.
If both teams maintain their averages, we’re looking at roughly 3.17 total goals with contributions from both sides.
Even if Jong Ajax drops below their away average, Helmond’s home scoring (1.88) suggests they should bag at least one, and Jong Ajax’s poor
defense (shipping 2.43 per away game) means Helmond should definitely score.
Next up we have a Brazillian match:
Mirassol v Ceara | Monday 22:00 UTC
Mirassol are having an absolute fairytale debut season in the top flight - sitting 4th with 59 points and chasing a historic Libertadores spot.
Ceara are mid-table in 12th, scrapping for Sudamericana qualification.
The big story here is Mirassol’s home form. Unbeaten in 17 home matches this season (11 wins, 6 draws) and they’ve scored 2+ in eight of their last ten at home. That’s ridiculous. They’ve also beaten Ceara three times on the bounce, including 2-0 away back in July.
Ceara have been pretty poor on
their travels - eight defeats from 17 away games - and they’re missing Pedro Raul (suspension) and Vina (red card), which really hurts their attacking options.
Mirassol to win looks the play at around 1.71. Their home record is just too good and Ceara’s personnel problems are significant.
Under 2.5 goals also has some appeal - Ceara’s last 7 matches have all stayed
under that line and they’ll likely sit deep here.