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The Core Idea

The model is built to find races where the numbers clearly point to one horse being much stronger or weaker than the rest.

If a horse looks weak compared to its rivals but still short in the betting → it becomes a Lay bet (we bet against it).

If a horse looks much stronger than the rest and at a fair price → it becomes a Win bet (we back it).

If the gap between horses isn’t clear, the model simply skips the race.

Todays Win & Lay selections:

WIN Selections
• 13:35 Fairy - — Love Me Tender

LAY GAP Selections
I spent time looking at the Gap 7 (sicne that version has all of the bets) and it appears if we remove all handicap races the model is much better.

Handicaps 901 lays and -27

Non-handicaps 264 lays +44.53

So based on this I think it's better if I stick with non handicaps for all 3 variations

For today that leaves:

LAY GAP 7 Selections

• 13:35 Fairy - — Koktail Brut

• 15:00 Leic - — Smart Decision

LAY GAP 10 Selections
• 13:35 Fairy - — Koktail Brut

• 15:00 Leic - — Smart Decision

LAY GAP 12 Selections
• 13:35 Fairy - — Koktail Brut

Note: I do not lay over 10.0, bets are fired automatically at 60 seconds pre race and my results are based on this only.