⚠️ KEY INSIGHT: Favourites have a poor record (5/23 winners). Market position 1 has been 0/6 in the last 10 years. Claiming jockeys have won 7 of the last 11 runnings. Dan Skelton has won the last two renewals and goes for a hat-trick with A Pai De Nom.

✅ AGE SWEET SPOT: 19/23 winners have been aged 7 or younger. 6-7yo dominate with 7 of the last 10 winners. However, 5yo have a 0/15 record - don't win at all. The 8-9yo bracket has produced solid P/L (+77pts combined).

⚠️ WEIGHT WARNING: 14/23 winners carried 10-11 or less. The 12-0 weight bracket is 0/3 - a concern for French Ship today. The sweet spot is 10-10 to 11-0 where 5 of the last 10 winners have come from.

✅ THE GOLDEN OR: OR 130-134 has produced 6 winners from 39 runners (15% SR, +102pts P/L). OR 132 specifically: 3 wins from 8 runners (38% SR, +99pts P/L). This is THE key stat. Lanesborough (OR 130) fits perfectly.

⚠️ MARKET POSITION: 2nd favourite is the sweet spot (33% SR, +13pts). Outright favourites have been poor (0/6 in last 6 years). Huge outsiders at 16th-17th in the market have delivered 2 winners at big prices (Jay Jay Reilly 33/1, Boreham Bill 66/1).

💡 PATH ANGLE: The Ascot December Premier Handicap is a golden trial - 2 wins from 6 runners (+27pts). WRECKLESS ERIC ran in that race (7th, needed run after 9 months off). This is a key positive.

✅ SKELTON DOMINANCE: Dan Skelton has won the last two runnings (West Balboa '23, Jay Jay Reilly '24) and goes for a hat-trick with A Pai De Nom. 18% SR, +36pts P/L. The stable to follow.

💡 CLAIMING JOCKEY STAT: A claiming jockey has won 7 of the last 11 runnings. Today's claimers: Callum Pritchard (3lb) on French Ship, Olive Nicholls (5lb) on Fasol, Rian Corcoran (7lb) on Goodwin, Chad Bament (7lb) on King Of The Lake.

✅ BACK:

• 6-7 year olds - 7 of last 10 winners
• OR 130-134 - 6 wins, 15% SR, +102pts P/L
• Weight 10-10 to 11-0 - Sweet spot
• 2nd favourite - 33% SR, +13pts
• Dan Skelton runners - Hat-trick angle, +36pts
• Ascot December path - 2 wins from 6, +27pts
• Claiming jockeys - 7 of last 11 winners

❌ AVOID:

• 5-year-olds - 0/15 ❌
• Weight 12-0 - 0/3 (French Ship concern) ❌
• OR 140+ - 0/26 ❌
• Outright favourite - 0/6 last 6 years
• 3rd favourite - 0/15 ❌
• Big drifters - King Of The Lake (+106%), Yellow Star (+150%)

🎯 LANZAROTE 2026 SELECTIONS

A PAI DE NOM (6yo, 10-6, OR 124, 9/2, Skelton) - Perfect trends fit. 6yo, sensible weight, Skelton going for hat-trick. The stable's number one target. WIN BET

WRECKLESS ERIC (6yo, 10-10, OR 128, 12/1, O'Neill) - Huge market support (20/1 into 12/1). Ascot path angle (+27pts). Proven at this level (Imperial Cup 2nd). EACH-WAY VALUE

LANESBOROUGH (7yo, 10-12, OR 130, 4/1, Pauling) - Best form in the race. OR 130 in the golden zone. Doncaster form franked. SAVER

⚠️ FRENCH SHIP WARNING

Potentially the best horse in the race but the 12-0 weight is a major concern (0/3 historically). OR 146 also way above the sweet spot. He's a graded horse slumming it in a handicap - but the trends say NO. Too short at 4/1.

📅 DUBLIN RACING FESTIVAL PREVIEWS - Full trends analysis for every Grade 1 at Leopardstown (1st-2nd February). The key Irish trials before Cheltenham.

🏆 COMPLETE CHELTENHAM ROADMAP - DRF trials → Cheltenham paths. Which horses take the winning routes? We'll track every major trial and show you exactly which paths have produced Festival winners.

All previews will feature the same in-depth trends analysis powered by HorseRaceBase data.

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