📊 Key Historical Trends
🎯 Winning Paths - Where Winners Came From
| Previous Race | Count | Wins | P/L (SP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tingle Creek Chase | 8 | 8 | +8.12 |
| Desert Orchid Chase | 5 | 5 | +38.18 |
| Castleford Handicap Chase | 1 | 1 | +14.00 |
| Paddy Power Chase (Grade 1) | 1 | 1 | +0.50 |
🔮 Where Clarence House Winners Go Next
| Next Race | Count | Wins | P/L (SP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Queen Mother Champion Chase | 17 | 6 | +0.72 |
| Game Spirit Chase | 9 | 4 | +0.86 |
| Ryanair Chase | 8 | 2 | +0.25 |
📈 Critical Statistics
| Metric | Best Profile | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 9 years old | 3 wins from 10 (P/L +21.62) |
| Official Rating | OR 156 | 2 wins from 2 runs (P/L +36.00) |
| Odds Bracket | 1/2 to 10/11 | 4 wins from 5 runs (80%) |
| Days Since Run | 16-30 days | 4 wins from 17 (P/L +2.43) |
| Previous Position | Won last time | 9 wins from 26 (35%) |
🐎 Runner-by-Runner Analysis
Recent Form: Impressive 9-length win in the Tingle Creek, travelling strongly throughout. Previously won at Sandown over Jonbon in April. Elite-level performer with 7 wins from 9 chases (78%).
✅ Positives
- Perfect Tingle Creek prep (8 winners via this route)
- In-form, unbeaten this season
- Highest OR in field (172)
- Willie Mullins 38% strike rate in race
- Beat Jonbon convincingly last time
❌ Negatives
- Short price (2/5) offers limited value
- 8yo slightly outside optimal age (9-10 better)
- OR 172 hasn't won this race historically
- Sharper track may not suit as well
Recent Form: Dominant 10-length win in the Desert Orchid at Kempton, making all. Four consecutive chase wins before a pull-up in November. Front-running style, jumping with enthusiasm.
✅ Positives
- Perfect age profile (9yo - best winning age)
- OR 158 matches winning rating exactly (100% strike rate)
- Desert Orchid route hugely profitable (+38.18)
- Ideal freshness (21 days - optimal window)
- Progressive, improving with each run
- Front-runner can dictate
❌ Negatives
- Big step up in class
- Never raced at this elite level before
- Daniel Skelton 0% strike rate in this race
- May find pace too hot
Recent Form: Second to Il Etait Temps in the Tingle Creek (9L). Won this race last year. Overall record of 13 wins from 19 chases, but 0 wins from last 5 starts raises concerns.
✅ Positives
- Course winner (2025)
- Tingle Creek prep (correct route)
- 10yo fits age profile perfectly
- Henderson 50% strike rate in race
- Proven at highest level
❌ Negatives
- Winless in last 5 starts (poor current form)
- Well beaten by Il Etait Temps last time
- OR dropped from 171 to 166 (regressing)
- Hard to see reversing Tingle Creek form
Recent Form: Good second at Ascot in November. Previously won a novice Grade 1 at Aintree. Limited chase experience with mixed results.
✅ Positives
- OR 156 perfect (100% strike rate historically)
- Ran well at Ascot previously
- Each-way value at 8/1... oh wait
❌ Negatives
- Limited chase experience (only 4 runs)
- Hasn't followed traditional prep routes
- 56 days since last run (outside optimal window)
- Significantly outclassed on ratings
- Harry Fry 0% strike rate in this race
🎯 The Verdict
This is a fascinating clash between the market-dominant favourite and an intriguing outsider who ticks numerous historical trends.
Il Etait Temps is clearly the class horse here with the perfect prep race and elite-level form. Willie Mullins has a 38% strike rate in this race, and the grey was supremely impressive at Sandown. However, at 2/5, there's minimal value - you're getting odds-on about a horse who hasn't won at this specific rating band before and is stepping onto a sharper track.
Jonbon would be more appealing if he hadn't lost his last 5 starts. The course form is a plus, but he's regressing rather than progressing.
Gidleigh Park has the magical OR 156 but lacks the experience and prep race credentials to seriously challenge here.
The trends scream Thistle Ask at the price:
- ✅ Perfect age (9yo) - the best-performing age group (+21.62 P/L)
- ✅ OR 158 - virtually identical to the winning OR 156 band (100% strike rate)
- ✅ Desert Orchid route - the most profitable prep path (+38.18)
- ✅ 21 days freshness - sits in the optimal 16-30 day window
- ✅ Front-running style - can dictate terms and jump them into submission
- ✅ Progressive form - 5 wins from last 6 chases, improving with each run
The play: While Il Etait Temps should win, Thistle Ask represents significantly better value at 10/1 in a 4-runner race. With only 4 runners, it's win-only betting, so a smaller win stake is sensible. The front-running style could make them all work harder than expected, and on softer ground where stamina comes into play over 2m1f at Ascot, his relentless gallop could pay dividends.
Suggested Stakes: 1pt WIN on Thistle Ask at 10/1 (saver only - this is the value play against a short-priced favourite)