Carlisle 14:20
We have two selections here, and I’ll start with TUDOR.
We were on TUDOR when he ran on debut. Unfortunately he was slowly away and ran green, but showed promising signs as he made up ground late, on a stiff finishing track.
Todays course is very similar to that of his debut run at Hamilton, both undulating with a stiff finish. However this time it’s a galloping track, and after looking at breeding, it suggests he will enjoy this even more.
Despite the troubles he faced on debut he still racked up the best speed rating in the field with only just 1 start, and with natural improvement to come on his second start he looks a promising bet.
In the race comments on debut he was also described as an “eyecatcher” which are the sorts of comments you see on debuts from horses who then go on to run in class 1, and graded events.
My next selection in this race comes in at a bigger price of 15/2. SIR MIN hasn’t shown a lot in his 2 starts to date, but both came on sharp courses. There isn’t much breeding to go by with how he will put up with today’s galloping course, with only 2 runs and 1 place.
The main reason this horse interested me was the mount of Richard Kingscote. Richard very rarely takes the trip down to Carlisle, visiting just 4 times in the last 5 years, winning 2 (50%).
Trainer Ian Williams is very similar, and has only visited the track 13 times in 5 years, and arrives here for the first time in over a year.
This horse is dropped significantly in grade and may be more competitive at this class 4 event, rather than the class 2’s he’s been running at.
Carlisle 16:05
We have TRICORN here, as he looks to complete a 5 timer of handicap races.
He was upped in class lto to today’s class, and was eased towards the finish over a slightly longer distance. He is now upped to a all time high of 9st13lb.
He is returning quickly today, just 8 days after that last success. The trainer has a positive p/l when returning runners within 10 days, and the horse has won both starts when returning quickly too.
To me, it looks like the trainer has done all he can to get this 5 timer, and I wouldn’t bet against him doing it.
A good low draw will help get him into a good position throughout, and with the undefeated title in cheek pieces 7/2 is a good price to get involved with this.
Carlisle 17:15
DONT TELL CLAIRE ran a career best speed figure lto in a class 2, and was actually short of room 2 furlongs out, which dented her stride. She is up 9lb today for that run, but drops to a class 4 from a class 2!
That was her 2nd run off a lay off, and expect more improvement to come here over 7f, which will suit her nicely. She’s also just 4 years old, so natural improve will always be likely.
The jockey has 50% win rate with the trainer winning 2 from 4 races, and is on board for the first time today.
She should sit around mid pack and come with a strong run late on.
The fav ran a decent race lto, but is upped in both weight and class, and over galloping tracks it’s not easy to get over those two factors and win.
Salisbury 14:10
DAIRERIN has had 3 runs, and all 3 runs score the top 3 speed figures ahead of the field. The best came on debut when running at Ripon over 5f, where he ducked right at the start and ran on to win.
He then ran well on a galloping track at Newbury where he was headed in the final strides to come 2nd in a class two over 6f, before running a very average run lto on soft ground at Epsom.
He has shown promise in these 3 runs, and will hope to get his first win on the board today.
He is down in class and weight today, and Tom Marquand has jumped off the 2nd fav GENERAL PANIC to ride our horse for the first time, which tells you something in itself.
Cheek pieces are on for the first time, and the trainer has a positive record record when applying.
With all the best speed ratings in the field, the 3lb drop, and class ease there is no excuses for this horse today, who will look to ride prominently.
Salisbury 16:30
MASTER MILLINER will take some beating here, as he put up a stellar performance at this C+D lto. He is raising in class, but over sharper tracks it’s easier to deal with that, and he gets 5lb’s off too, and over the longer distances that will work in our favor.
The jockey Cieren Fallon will work in our favor too as he retains the mount, and is in massive form of late.
This selection is as straight forward as they come with C+D form lto.
NUITS ST GEORGES ran very well at Goodwood lto winning a class 2 event, and drops to a class 3 today but has 11lb extra to carry, and Silvesta (the master of front running) is being replaced by Sean Levey, and that doesn’t give me all confidence on that front, as De Sousa jumps on Buriram, who may need a bit more time to find his stride.
Kempton 19:10
CAVALLUCCIO has had two runs to date, and both top the speed ratings.
He ran well on debut at Lingfield, and the switch to Kempton should be no problem. Pat Cosgrave who rode on debut regains the ride from Adam McNamara who rode lto, and that gives me good confidence of another good ride to come.
The odds on fav KING’S GUARD didn’t set the world alight on debut, and faces a raise in class. I think this is a good opportunity to take the fav on here with our better experience.
