————————————————————
Sandown 13:50
ATALIS BAY looks one of two possible pace angles here. The other is LAZULI, but usual mount William Buick is away and James Doyle is riding for the first time. This is less than ideal for C Appleby, and with the softer ground due tomorrow breeding suggests he won’t deal with it well.
Our selection has ran on this ground before, and is likely to lead or track the leader. Many of the favs here look to run from the back and with this likely weak pace that will be a tough ask for them to make up the ground needed to catch us.
We won lto at this C+D in a class 1, making all and keeping on, despite hanging left inside the final furlong. With a straighter run he gets an even better speed rating.
Andrea retains his ride and will look to apply the same tactics here, with this likely weak pace.
He is 2lb better off than last race and is only 3 years old. He fits many trends for this race and is set for a big run at a fair price.
The danger for me is KEEP BUSY. He has been slowly away a few times, once under today’s rider Ryan Moore. He will likely not be near the pace and that’s an issue for me over 5f. We are also getting better value with our selection, but I don’t expect him to be far away.
Sandown 14:25
MAYDANNY can be forgiven for his last run at Ascot. It’s not an easy course to front run and it contained many runners (30).
Attention can be drawn to his run before that after a 224 day break. He came 2nd, losing the win towards the end, and drops 1f from that run today which will help. He is also 5lb lighter than that run.
Mark Johnston has 2 in this, and it’s interesting he has put his better jockey Dane O’Neill on this one rather than the other which is lower odds. Mark has a 25% win rate with Dane, whereas he has a 4.35% win rate with Atzeni who rides his other mount for the first time.
You want to be prominent here. Just 2 wins from 62 in this race when running from mid div or further back. We are drawn outside but with a bit of pace which has been showed on previous starts; we should be within the top 2 early on.
From here if he controls the pace and doesn’t go to fast he can get in front, with some of the best speed ratings in the field, with less distance to last out too.
Fits many trends and is a nice price so I’m happy to go for it here.
Sandown 16:10
SWORD BEACH has shown potential in recent starts and he some very good speed ratings on similar ground.
He has shown a potential for a class raise with when keeping on well at Sandown in a class 3. That was 2 starts ago, and the extra 2f today will help. He returns with a slightly bigger task on his hands with added weight but the addition of the extra distance will help, and I believe this horse is one to run with its company. Not winning class 4’s yet finishing 1/2l off first place in class 3 company shows he wants to compete against the best, and that test is upon him today.
He should be ridden in behind the leaders and is under Charles Bishop for the first time.
Returning quickly today shouldn’t be an issue as he ran well after just a 13 day break, so the trainer is keen to get him going again.
The dangers for me are RESTORER and LUIGI VAMPA. If handling the up in class those two will be threats however they haven’t shown as many signs as ours today, and are less consistent. Also RESTORER is 9 years old and I fancy a more improving type here. We also get weight off both.
Should go close providing he handles the class raise.
Haydock 14:05
DHUSHAN is a back runner and having his 2nd handicap start today.
Daniel Tudhope has ridden the last twice and has won both times in a class 4 and 3.
He kept on well lto in a class 3 over 12f and takes the step up to 14f today.
I Personally think he has been taking it easy with this one, and the extra 2f will really help today.
Daniel has a massive 38.30% win rate when working with the trainer across 47 races placing over 70% of the time.
His first start at Goodwood is what I’m most interested about, and think the trainer has held back with this horse once seeing the potential. His debut came in today’s class (2) under Tom Marquand under today’s weight, were he sent off fav and made a strong challenge in the final 110y to finish 2nd, keeping on and just failing to win.
Since then he has had a break and entered in lesser races. After two rides Daniel will know the horse well and will have a gage of when to kick this horse into full gear late on.
William Haggas won this race last year, and it looks a race for favs over the 4 races it’s had in its history. 4/4 returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting and currently we are the only horse in the field to fit those margins. 2/4 had winning favs and 3/4 carried more than 8-13lb, which dishonors the 2nd fav who has 8st11.
The stats above only scrape the surface however as 4 races aren’t a lot to go by, but it’s interesting to see these stats once I’ve picked my preferred horse here.
To help a contested pace is expected, and as a back runner with extra distance and proven at this class that is a recipe for success.
He has a good draw on the outside and has every chance to give William Haggas this race again after winning in 2020. Looks prime and ready to win this race.
Haydock 15:15
DARK JEDI is my selection in Newton Cup this year.
Fitting many trends over the past 19 years. Fantastic return lto from a 275 day break at Windsor when keeping on when short of room. The extra furlong today will help along with the 6lb weight drop too. He has clearly showed good progression over the winter and should come on from that run lto.
Tim Easterby calls up one of his most trusted jockeys in David Allan to ride today. Duran Fentiman has ridden the last 9 times and is switched out for this big event. David has ridden 509 times for the trainer in the last year winning 12.38%, and it’s nice to see him jumping on when it comes to the big race.
It’s interesting that this horse has had just a 7 day break. He responds well to little breaks in the past and the trainer uses them well.
Despite running well lto he has achieved better speed ratings in the past, mainly the one at Pontefract in the soft. The ground will likely loosen tomorrow and that will play into our hands.
Given the obvious improvement over the winter I believe this horse could run a big one here at fair odds.
