Woodward Racing
Woodward Racing:
Beverley 19:23 SOPHIE’S STAR 9/2 1pt win (Inclusive)
————————————————————
Beverley 19:23
SOPHIE’S STAR has 4 runs to her name and is the most experienced in the field. This is her first time on a galloping track and breeding suggests it will suit better. The stiff finish at Beverley won’t be any trouble either as she’s been keeping on in her last two starts over this distance.
Pierre-Louis Jamin has the ride today and has ridden twice before. I believe he is on board to claim a handy 5lb.
She has won a class 4 event before on soft ground at Thirsk, when being all out to hold on. With better ground I don’t think it will as hard to get a little bit more out of her in the closing stages.
She came 2nd lto at a class 4, and is only 1lb up today thanks to the 5lb claim from the jockey. K Burke often works with this apprentice, with 55 runs together and a 16% win rate.
When Burke enters horses of this age, in a non handicap over class distance and course he has won 1 from 2. The winner at 5/1 and the loser at 33/1.
The main dangers for me are GIFT HORSE and FORM OF PRAISE. GIFT HORSE has been running well despite getting no luck in the running, however he has an appearance on board today, and gets the pleasure of William Buick ridding removed. He is also up in class and hasn’t racked up the speed ratings we have. He is also lower odds and holds less value.
FORM OF PRAISE is untested on better ground. His debut came on heavy going and he went 4th in the final strides when short of room. He has had a 40 break since and Paul Hanagan is on board this time replacing Tony Hamilton. The problem with this one is he is likely to back run based on his sole appearance. Over 5f at Beverley that isn’t a profitable move.
I’ll give the fav a mention here. He doesn’t look to enjoy galloping tracks as much as the sharper ones based on breeding, and didn’t land his last start at 10/11 in a class 5. He is up in class today and drawn wide which isn’t as suited as the lower draws, and we our selections in stall 3 we have the advantage. Graham Lee is in terrible form at the moment and at odds of 6/5 I’m staying far away.
Our selection is drawn low which is an advantage, and he will also likely head for the lead. A massive £231 profit from £1 stakes over 135 runs for those who have led this race. We are very likely to be up there with the pace, and hopefully make all. Only 5.31% have won when running from mid div or further back in 640 races here. That discounts Numbers 5,9,6,7 for me.
With a good race lto we look set to win here at a fair price providing we get a good prominent position. Topping the speed figures and with a preference for this ground and galloping tracks; we should further improve. Not to mention the good draw too.