Newmarket 15:35 MOTHER EARTH 13/2 1pt win (Inclusive)
Newmarket 15:35 JUST BEAUTIFUL 33/1 0.5pt win (HorsesToNote)
Newmarket 16:10 DULAS 6/1 2pt win (Mainstream)
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Newmarket 15:35
We have two running in this one, and I’ll start with MOTHER EARTH.
Aidan O’Brien has won 2 of the last 5 runnings and arrives here with just one entry. Ryan Moore is onboard and has won 3 of the last 7 runnings of this race, making today’s trainer and jockey combo a strong team.
She returned after running in America to run at today’s course and won it under Frankie Dettori. That was impressive off a break and as a 3 year old she’ll still be improving.
Her last race came at Ascot on the heavy where she put in another solid performance finishing 3rd. Back on firmer ground today and a handy 2lbs down; the return to this course should help her get in front today.
She will be held up like usual and will be delivered late. Ryan has ridden before which helps and this horse fits many of the race trends.
A real contender here at a fair price.
My next selection in this race is the unbeaten JUST BEAUTIFUL.
Winning 4/4 races; this horse loves to front run. She took a step up to a class 1 from a class 5 lto and won nicely, keeping on towards the end. She is up in trip to a mile for the first time, but after keeping on well lto it shouldn’t be to much of a problem. She also up 7lb for that, but I’m convinced she will get her own way up top and could steal the race.
MOTHER EARTH is drawn close to JUST BEAUTIFUL giving her some pace to aim at which is great, and with this selection we cover two angles from the front and back of the field.
Her last race tops the speed ratings, when running at Musselburgh, and her breeding suggests a galloping track will suit better. This is her first time on a galloping track and with the extra distance she could find a real stride to pull clear early and stay there.
I’m really taking a punt on her getting a soft lead, and taking them start to finish under a jockey who has only won once here. Big odds but I wouldn’t be surprised if this goes gate to wire.
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Newmarket 16:10
DULAS is down in class today after running well at Newmarket lto.
He has a 3lb penalty for that but runs in this class 3 today which he will find a lot easier.
His best run tops the speed ratings by far, when competing at Chester. He led all the way until he was headed at the finish over 1m.
The stiff 7f will be no problem as he has ran well on it before, and the ease in grade will make it a lot easier for this front runner today.
We look the sole pace here and if we can get the early lead we have every chance to win. In fact if we get this lead and don’t win I’ll be surprised. 22% of those who have lead in this race go on to win, giving a p/l of +£75 to £1 stakes from 77 runs.
He has front ran in each of his last 4 starts, bar one where he didn’t look to want to run. This looks very promising considering he was running against better horses yet still getting the lead. We also have Frankie on board here, who will very likely do as instructed and get him to the front early.
Frankie has only ridden once for the C Hills yard in the past year and it’s interesting that he is booked here on this promising 4 year old. Yards tend to go for the big bookings when they expect a win and I can see why with his current form and class drop.
Providing we get the lead there is no excuses for Frankie to not go on to win this.
