Woodward Racing:

Sandown 20:10 BUXTED TOO 7/1 1pt win (Inclusive)

Sandown 20:10 STAY WELL 11/2 1pt win (Inclusive)

Lingfield 14:10 RAFIOT 10/1 2pt win (Mainstream)

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Sandown 20:10 

BUXTED TOO has the mount of David Egan on board today.

 

Trainer Ian Williams isn’t in fantastic form of current, yet I have found an interesting angle here despite that.

David Egan looks to be appointed on the best 3 year olds. 

 

6/1 4th/11
13/2 3rd/13
13/2 4th/10
11/1 3rd/11
9/1 1st/13

Last 5 runs on 3 year olds.

 

He has ridden this horse once giving its best speed rating to date. That came on the galloping track of Sandown, and arrives here to bath going up in distance to 1m2f from the 1m that day (held but kept on inside final furlong) and is down in class to a class 3 from class 2.

 

His last run was over this trip in a class 3 at Haydock, a sharper course. He was short of room and switched right 2f out where he ran on well in the final 110yards and went third towards the finish. The stiff finish at Bath will help further display his stamina, and back to a galloping track will suit too. David is back on as mentioned, so I’m confident the trainer expects a good run. They are 17.65% when teaming up, with a 50% place strike rate, giving a E/W p/l of £52.13, and a win p/l of £28 from £1 stakes.

 

This horse is likely do his best running late on. Over this trip at Sandown the “held up” horses have a £32.49 p/l, winning 13.79% of the time. That’s higher than all the other running styles. 

 

Given a well timed ride he has every chance at a good price.

Our other selection in this race is STAY WELL who is having his 2nd handicap start for H Morrison.

Morrison has called the help of Oisin Murphy, who has rode for the trainer 30 times this year winning a massive 36.67% of them, and achieving a p/l of £15.32. 

Tom Marquand has rode every race to date on this horse, yet goes with the fav SEA SYLPH here, who he has also ridden. I think this may be due to his closer relationship with William Haggas (SEA SYLPH’s trainer) and not the fact that he is a better horse. He has rode 297 times for Haggas this past year, so he is clearly staying loyal to a trainer who gives him many rides.

That doesn’t put me off this horse in the slightest, and I’m happy with Oisin taking the mount with that impressive strike rate.

 

His last two rides came over soft ground, which is far from ideal. This could also be a fact in why Tom has come off our selection today. Before that however he has been very impressive. His debut came in a class 2 at Doncaster, so the trainer really thinking highly of this horse. The rest of the field were entered in class 5’s on debut. He dwelt the start that day, yet railed to go second inside the final furlong. The official race comments described him as an “eye catcher” which is a great sign. That was over 1m, so the 1m2f here on the stiff finish will suit a lot better.

 

He was then off the track for 229 days when returning to Windsor. He scored the best speed rating of the whole field that day, winning easily in a class 5 over today’s trip.

 

Since, he has been entered in a class 1 and 2, but I believe the soft ground has been the reason for his poor performances in those races.

 

I think the trainer has him in a nice spot here with this class 3, and arrives on his 2nd handicap at a fair weight.

 

I’m expecting this one to be more with the pace, so I’m covering both angles across the field with these two selections.

 

The drying ground is a great sign for both horses, and a big chance to land one here.

Lingfield 14:10

RAFIOT is my selection here as I dive into the murky waters of a class 6 race.

This one popped up on my systems and as I do everyday, I have an in-depth look. This one has really caught my eye.

 

His last run at C+D was hugely impressive and should have been further upgraded with a better ride. He scored a huge speed rating in a class 4, and returns here with the same conditions, this time in a class 5, 14lb higher.

 

The added weight doesn’t me.

 

I’m a firm believer in class drops over weight, and this task will be a lot easier here.

The downfall is the trainers current form, winning 1 race from his last 36. He does do okay at this course however, and with the angles I’ve found I’m happy to go for it here. 

Blinkers are being applied here for the first time. I’m hoping that will get more out of him, and will help the rider with an easier circuit. I’m expecting a ride from towards the rear, which is the most profitable running style at this course and distance. 

He has won at Southwell on the A/W when last competing over this distance on the A/W, and in a class5. He was 9st8lb that day and with more races under his belt since then, he will only be better off today. 
Tom Queally is onboard and has ridden twice before. This horse often has jockey switches so no concern there. 

A big price here for a horse who has proven himself over the C+D. Really exciting to see how he copes here in easier company.