Goodwood 13:50 ITS GOOD TO LAUGH 10/1 0.5pt win (Horses To Note)
Goodwood 14:25 LUSAIL 9/4 2pt win (Mainstream)
Goodwood 15:00 SAFE VOYAGE 9/1 0.5pt win (HorsesToNote)
Goodwood 15:35 TRUESHAN 9/4 2pt win (Mainstream)
Goodwood 16:10 ZARGUN 22/1 0.5pt win (HorsesToNote)
Goodwood 16:45 OLIVETTI 6/1 0.5pt win (HorsesToNote)
Goodwood 17:20 URBAN VIOLET 5/1 0.5pt win (HorsesToNote)
Goodwood 17:50 SHEPHERDS WAY 8/1 1pt win (Inclusive)
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Goodwood 13:50
ITS GOOD TO LAUGH is my first selection to kick off what looks a fantastic week of racing thanks to Goodwood week.
A very tricky opening race, but I’m having a small play on this one here.
This horse arrived at the Jennie Candlish yard lto, and ran an absolute stormer at 50/1 SP, finishing 2nd by 0.1 lengths. That was over slightly further (1m3f), and the drop back to 1m2f on breeding suggests a positive move.
He arrives here in the same class, a massive 16lb lighter, and has the booking of Oisin Murphy. They have teamed up just once, when winning on CONFRONTATIONAL at 3/1 in May. Oisin booked again today, suggests a big run. What also interests me is CONFRONTATIONAL is running today as a sole send out to Beverley. Interesting.
With a massive speed rating scored lto when handed over to a new barn, you can see why this selection is up there with the market leaders. Down a lot of weight today, big jockey booking too.
The pace looks super fast here for the first, and a midfield run from Oisin will put this horse in a prime spot to close in and win late on.
The dangers being both the fav and LUCANDER. Both will enjoy a small cut in the ground, and look progressive.
Goodwood 14:25
LUSAIL has won his previous two races, and is entered here on a sharp course for the first time.
Breeding heavily suggests his love for the sharper going. The only threat for me is BERKSHIRE SHADOW, of whose breeding doesn’t suggest as nearly as strong. He is also lighter raced, however he is back running, and will give up some valuable lengths in the process.
Our selection isn’t the complete machine, but looks to have the beating of everyone here. He scored the highest speed rating of the field lto when winning at Newmarket at 6f on the stiff finish, which shows Goodwood shouldn’t be a problem either.
Whilst he hasn’t had much fun on softer ground; those were all under different rides. When competing on those conditions he run from a less prominent position, and I believe that’s the reason he hasn’t been successful. Breeding suggests it should be okay, and I’m not concerned on that side of things.
The trends here strongly favor the favorites. A massive 13/19 winning favs in this race. 14/19 placed favs. 18/19 returning 6/1 or shorter. We fit many further trends, as does BERKSHIRE SHADOW. Richard Hannon has won 4/19 and has won this race the most out of all trainers, including Adian O’Brien who has won 3 times. His selection doesn’t appeal to me here.
If we get the lead here, which looks likely, I can’t see us getting caught in front. Pat Dobbs on yet again, and will be looking for a hat trick of wins on this selection.
Goodwood 15:00
SAFE VOYAGE is my pick in the 3rd here.
I’m going against the two Appleby runners. Not the right price for me, and both set to back run, which is against the pace bias over 7f imo.
Our selection took them start to finish lto at Chester. He ran on well too suggesting he has more to offer at the grand old age of 8!
He will likely get the lead again today. Draw 3 will get him into a good position early, and could grab a good length or two turning in, in first place.
He is 2lb down from his last race in which he scored an impressive speed rating. Jason Hart remains on board and at a decent price will try and replicate his performance last time into this race.
Fits a fair few trends, bar the age. 3-4yr olds win this 12/19 times, and the fav wins 8/19 times. May look good value, however the fav is 5 years old so he doesn’t fit the trend either.
A lot more value here, and for a race that has returned 7/1 or shorter 17 times from 19; we can likely squeeze into that bracket.
Goodwood 15:35
TRUESHAN is my selection to ruin STRADIVARIUS 5th possible win in a row in this race. He has won the previous 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 stages of this race, but all good things have to come to an end, and I think that will be tomorrow, with this selection.
A very good performer, and will like the cut in the ground tomorrow. His stand out performance was when running at Ascot over today’s distance, when winning very impressively.
The trends on this race show 12/19 returned 7/2 or shorter. Our selection is 1 of 2 that fit the trend, and 11/19 were winning favs.
He has ran well on sharper tracks, like when running off a break at Chester, coming 2nd to JAPAN, and keeping on over 1m5f. His effort at Newcastle lto wasn’t a disgrace either, and the return to the soil here will help.
The return of Hollie Doyle clearly shows his last race was a mere warm up, and he looks in prime condition to take the race here.
Goodwood 16:10
ZARGUN has sprung a few interesting angles on me here, and I’m happy to have a small play at a nice price.
His stand out run came at York over 6f, where he came a close 3rd at a massive price of 125/1 SP. He couldn’t follow up next time out when up in weight, but still ran a good race.
Since he’s ran in a non-handicap at Haydock, and twice at Ascot, with valid excuses in both of those at Ascot.
The switch over to Goodwood here could spark back up the form at York. Doesn’t mind the sharper tracks when not performing bad at Haydock in a class 1. He is back down to the weight of his big run at York (8st10), and comes here with a new jockey booking P J McDonald.
Most people wouldn’t bat an eye with the jockey on for the first time, but McDonald has won this race 2 times from 6. Not only that, stall 6 has won 2 times from 6 too, and you can guess we are drawn today :).
A trend that goes against the fav here is 6/6 unplaced lto, whereas the fav here finish 2nd lto. 5/6 returned 14/1 or bigger too, so not a race for favorites. 5/6 in stalls 9 or lower. Those stats really narrow the field down, and ours fits all those trends.
Few nice angles to go off, and I’m ignoring the 4-5yr olds winning 5/6 times. That was broken lto with ONLY SPOOFING (6yr old at the time) who runs here, this time a lot heavier. We fit a lot of trends dispute that, and could spark that form when coming to England from France.
Goodwood 16:45
OLIVETTI is my pick here in this race full of 2yr olds and debutants.
I’m staying away from the 2/1 debutant here. Doesn’t look made for these conditions, with breeding showing only 1 win from 35 runs at sharper tracks.
Our selection ducked right at the start and was slowly into stride on debut at Newbury. He made headway and kept on without an impression inside the final furlong. Despite being slowly away he scored a decent speed rating that day.
The threat for me is SCATTERING. He displayed a good turn of foot, running on strongly over 5f on debut at Newcastle. He to was slowly away, but made up ground and ran impressively. That was on a galloping course and Tapeta. Haggas likes it here two with his 2yr olds, and could be tough to beat.
The main angle I’m going off here is OLIVETTI is a half brother to stablemate PEROTTO, who is 2 from 3 at this venue. The yard also won this contest 12 months ago at 25/1. Hoping the cut in the ground can spark improvement, on a surface he’s bred to enjoy.
Another angle here is Oisin is booked. He has worked for the yard just once in the past year, winning at 18/1.
Both yard and jockey knew this course inside out, so a good run awaits if taking better to the conditions here.
Goodwood 17:20
URBAN VIOLET is my pick here after a good display at Ripon lto.
He ran over 1m2f in his previous race, and weakened towards the finish. The step back to 1m should suit a lot better, and the forecasts are very similar.
De Sousa is back on board, which is a positive and for a race dominated by 3yr olds, our 3yr old here looks the best.
Running from the back won’t be an easy task, but with a better jockey aboard today I believe we can come out on top, as De Sousa has ridden this one prominently, and has also held him up when ridding.
DALANIJUJO looks the threat but is drawn out wide, and doesn’t have the speed to get across.
The going looks perfect here, and with a better suited distance this one has every chance.
Goodwood 17:50
SHEPHERDS WAY is my selection here at a nice price.
For a few this race has to shape perfectly in order for them to win, but I don’t just see that being the case.
MOUNTAIN BRAVE will want that lead, with LOVELY BREEZE, ISABELLA SWAN and CAROLINE DALE all forcing that pace in behind. The pace could be pretty strong here, and not everyone will get there preferred spot.
I’m going with SHEPHERDS WAY here. He has the best soft going form in the field, scoring a massive speed rating at Haydock when 1st of 12 in a class 4. He ran from the back that day, and will likely apply those tactics here.
He was beaten by MOUNTAIN BRAVE in his last race at Chester by 1 3/4 lengths. We are 4lb better off today and Paul Hanagan is back on board when winning a class 2 at York 2 start back, when dwelling the start and coming from the back.
I’d like to see the back running tactics return here, and with such a scramble for that tracking position I can see Paul holding off and delivering us late.
1 winner from 20 front runners in this race, with 5 from 47 when running prominently. A better 8 from 43 when back running, returning a profit of £20.58 from £1 stakes.
Given a patient ride this horse can take the race here at a very fair price.
