Chelmsford 16:18 JACK THE TRUTH 18/1 0.5pt win (HorsesToNote) (William Hill)
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Chelmsford 16:18
JACK THE TRUTH
Where Do I Expect Him To Run?
This one will likely be held up today. I don’t think he’ll sit in last, and I don’t want that here from a low draw. He should be 2nd or 3rd last, producing a run late. This method has worked in these conditions before, 5 starts back in this class when winning at 9/1.
Why The Trainer And Jockey?
I’m really happy to see Callum Shepherd on today. He rode the winning ride 5 starts ago, and returned on board lto in these conditions, in a class 4. He didn’t produce anything, but gets weight off today, moving up in class. He has won onboard before and will know the best positioning for this horse. The trainer knows this, and that’s why he was appointed lto, when returning to Chelmsford. Let’s hope he copes better in better company like he did before. That can often be a case for a bad
run.
The trainer does better here, winning 14.71% of the time in past year, compared to a 9.3% win rate across all tracks.
Why The Horse?
As explained earlier this horse won in these exact conditions, 1lb heavier. He was running against a lesser field of 6 that time, and the extra 3 runners will push that pace a bit faster, giving him a faster pace to run into.
The 89 day break shouldn’t be a problem, when 3rd at Wolverhampton 7 starts ago, 0.8l from the winner at 11/1. That was off a 95 day break, and he scored a good speed rating. He has won 2 from 3 times when competing after a break 80 days or longer in the past 3 years, so it clearly shows he can handle some time off to freshen up.
With a patient ride, just worst than mid division this horse can put in a good effort late on, hopefully skimming through at the rail from draw 1, after saving ground for the turn.
