Hi,

I have an early pick for Tuesday which is hugely over priced at 66/1, please read the write up below:

Little Gem – 3.50 Wolverhampton – 1m (0-50) Classified Stakes – 66/1 Sky Bet (4 Places) – 1 Point Each Way.

This is a classified race only available for horses rated a maximum of 50. Horses carry level weights, adjusted only to weight for age allowances.

It’s the lowest grade of racing and horses rated 50, or closest to that mark have a distinct advantage over the rest of the field.

With Little Gem sitting off a mark of 50, it’s surprising to see her sit as the outsider in this field, especially when you dig into her form.

She has only run once at today’s Wolverhampton track and trip where she came a 1 length 4^th off a mark of 52, postmarking 59 in the process. What makes this run look even better is the subsequent form of the three horses in front of her who have all gone on to win races. The winner Golden Acclaim is now 11lb higher, the second Kayfast Warrior is up a whooping 30lb (winning 5 races) and the third is up 10lb after winning his next start.  

Little Gem clearly likes acts well on the track and tapeta surface but hasn’t raced there since and a return could help spark a revival in her form.

Little Gem looks like an all-weather specialist, She has run 7 times on synthetic tracks and in her handicap races has postmarked 59, 56, 49, 48, 44 & 41 which included a win at Southwell (fibresand) off a mark of 45. Theses runs were also at polytrack courses of Kempton and Chelmsford. Her best mark of 59 was the only time she ran on a tapeta surface at Wolverhampton (also over today’s trip).

Compare this to her turf starts where she has run 5 times postmarking just 14, 26, 16, 41 and 8!!

Her last two starts were after a change of stable to Alan Berry and both on turf. The latest being the postmark of 8 where she pulled. These runs are being seen by the market as a serious dip in form and help make her today’s 66/1 outsider.

However the market hasn’t factored in the return to all-weather, based upon this form she would be sitting as one of the market principals.

Ella McCain has shown she is a competent rider with over 30 winners at a 13% strike rate, so her 5lb is a real bonus.

If little Gem runs to her previous mark 59 then in all likelihood she will win this race, so with Ella’s 5lb claim she only really has to run to 54 which give her every chance of victory.   

Time and time again I see horses who just have a massive preference for the all-weather and bounce back to form when returning to their preferred surface and I’m hoping I have found another Little Gem here at huge odds of 66/1!!!

I’m recommending 1 point each way with Bet365, best odds guaranteed.

She is still value at 12/1.