Nottingham 15:35 SPEEDO BOY 3-1 1pt win (Inclusive) (bet365)
Newmarket 19:38 VARIYANN 2-1 2pt win (Mainstream)
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Nottingham 15:35
SPEEDO BOY
Where Do I Expect This Horse To Run?
The only way this horse will win is a gate to wire. It looks the perfect set up with very little pace on. He usually takes up the running and with the slow pace should make all today.
Why The Trainer And Jockey?
Jason Hart is on board for the first time today and isn’t often called upon by trainer Ian Williams. He is a great jockey, and I suspect a good ride from the front.
Ian has a great 5 year course record here, winning 22.22% of 72 runs, placing 37.50% of the time.
Why The Horse?
SPEEDO BOY isn’t slowing down at the age of 7. He scored a huge speed rating lto over the distance at Ascot, winning by 2 3/4 lengths. He also had a good run at Goodwood 3 starts ago, where he came 2nd at a shorter distance. He wanted the extra 2f as he kept on well.
He is up 6lb for that last win but I believe this soft lead can defy that, and he can follow up his recent victory.
Newmarket 19:38
VARIYANN
Where Do I Expect This Horse To Run?
It’s a small field today, and this is what VARIYANN strives for. He performs well in small fields, and a prominent ride either leading or tracking the leaders is exactly what’s needed.
Why The Trainer And Jockey?
M Meade has a good 5yr course record here, winning 16% of 75 races and placing 40% of the time, both with positive p/l’s. He is also in great current form with a 33.33% strike rate across 21 races in the past 30 days.
Ray Dawson is on for the first time and claims a handy 3lb here, which I’ll get into later. Jockey and Trainer combo shows 1 win from 2 runs, and a £11 p/l to £1 stakes.
At first glance Ray doesn’t look to have the best form here, but he’s placed many times and has been unlucky.
Why The Horse?
Running in a class 2 lto at Salisbury saw this horse come 2nd over the same distance and stiff finish as today. Dropping in class and weight (thanks to Ray’s 3lb claim) looks a real angle here, along with his impressive speed ratings.
That run at Salisbury lto came off a 152 day break, and I believe he will be a lot better off today. He will handle the ground given he has ran on a firm Chelmsford for his best speed rating, and the 2nd run off the break can see this horse get his head in front now down in grade.
