Newbury 13:45 BAYSIDE BOY 11/8 2pt win (Mainstream) (bet365)
Ripon 14:40 TAJ ALRIYADH 5/4 2pt win (Mainstream) (bet365)
Ripon 15:45 LAMPANG 7/1 1pt win (Inclusive) (bet365)
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Newbury 13:45
BAYSIDE BOY 11/8
Where Do I Expect This Horse To Run?
On debut this horse dwelt the start, yet made up ground to win in great style. This type of race looks to throw up winners from anywhere, but a ride in behind the leaders looks the place to be.
Why The Trainer And Jockey?
Roger Varian is in good recent form, winning 32.5% of races in the last 14 days (across 40 runs).
David Egan rides for the first time today which looks a positive move.
Why The Horse?
To score one of the best speed ratings despite dwelling at the start is impressive, and progression looks likely with this one today after just one run.
This one cost £200,000gns, 170,000gns more than the fav here.
With a better getaway this horse should impress today.
Any Trends?
16/19 returned 4/1 or shorter
With two very close favs it looks a two runner race, and those odds work in our favor.
11/19 won lto
The fav did not win lto
Ripon 14:40
TAJ ALRIYADH
Where Do I Expect This Horse To Run?
In this small field I expect a dominant performance from this one today. Debutants positioning unknown here, but this one has been with the pace on both starts and comes here the most experienced.
The fav rode from the back on debut and will likely do the same here, putting him at a disadvantage.
Why The Trainer And Jockey?
The trainer hasn’t had all success at this course, but doesn’t send a whole lot of horses to this class. He also has a positive p/l with 2yr old runners here.
The jockey has ridden both times before and works with the trainer often.
Why The Horse?
Speed figures too good to turn down here. Over 5f on debut he won by 4l going away, whilst his recent performance wasn’t all so impressive he still got the win. I believe it was a tactical decision to not win by more that day, in order to prepare him for today’s run. The odds seem fair at above evens in what looks a two horse race.
Given a ride from the front we have every advantage over the fav and we can use our further experience to win here.
Ripon 15:45
LAMPANG
Where Do I Expect This Horse To Run?
Drawn low there looks to be a lot of pace. In behind the leaders will be an ideal trip here in a race that looks a fast gallop.
Why The Trainer And Jockey?
The trainer won this race last year with STAXTON. He has 6 entry’s here and clearly wants to win again, and I can see that winner being today’s fav.
The jockey does well on this horse and knows him well. Interesting to see that Easterby has placed the best jockey on this one rather than his other runners.
Why The Horse?
Lost many lengths at the start of his race at Goodwood lto, whilst running in a tiny field the time before. The stand out performance for me was at Hamilton when winning in this class at 10st. He was prominent that day and ran well. He “just did enough” to win so taking away the stiff finish today will likely help, as well as being 5lb better off today.
Any Trends?
6/19 winning favs (5 in the last 8)
It’s been a race hot for favs recently, and the support overnight for this one shows that here.
