We had another 28/1 place pick up today which keeps the profit edging up, but I'm desperate like all of us for some big priced wins!
Please see my two tips for Tuesday:
Hellenista – 4.00 Hamilton – 1m 4F Handicap – 7/1 Bet365 – 2 Point Win.
This all aged handicap is full of exposed older sorts who all take a turn in winning races.
At the head of the market is the 3 year old Desert Quest who is unexposed and won last time out, however that was in a 5 runner event over 1m 6F and he might find it harder to dominate from the front in this larger field and cope with a drop in trip of 2F.
The other unexposed 3 year old is Hellenista and I like her chances. She makes her handicap debut after running just three times over shorter trips where she was staying on without troubling the judge.
She has postmarked 47, 42 & 47 and has been allocated an initial mark off 55 which looks a fair starting point to me.
The trainer, Tim Easterby, knows the horse well having raced it’s mother, Maven, who herself ended up being rated in the 80’s. He also raced her in maidens over shorter trips and won when she made her handicap debut stepping up over further, that was also with todays jockey David Allan in the saddle.
I like this profile and we can get a very fair 7/1 on Hellenista so I recommend we back her 2 point win with Bet365.
She is still value at 5/1.
Bacca – 1.00 Wolverhampton – 1m 6F Handicap – 80/1 Bet365 – BOG – 1 Point each way.
Bacca was destined for greater things than running in this class 6 handicap on the all-weather as he was bought aa a yearling by the mighty Michael Tabor for $900 000 and was looking to emulate his close relative by winning the Breeders Cup.
It wasn’t meant to be as Bacca showed just average two and three year old form , postmarking in the 70’s and was sold on.
He has unsurprisingly raced most of his life on the all-weather over 1m2 to 2 miles and won a race over 2 miles, off a mark of 57. He was very consistent for Marcus Tregoning postmarking in the mid to high 60’s before he was again sold on.
He has only raced three times in the last two years. Twice in 2020 where he made a fair debut (after 324 days off) running over today’s course and distance finishing 8th of 13 only losing by 10 lengths off a mark of 60. He didn’t follow that up on his next start and was off until this year, so that signifies to me something was amiss.
He made his seasonal reappearance this season and flopped but must have had a breathing problem as he was given a wind operation shortly after that run.
Bacca also had a wind op in 2018 and ran well on his next run, so that bodes well as he makes his second start of the season today.
He has run well at Wolverhampton on a number of occasions, and he must have a good chance today now he runs off 52 with Tristan Durrell taking a further 5lb off netting his mark down to just 47.
This is an amateur riders race, so this really is low grade stuff and at odds of 80/1 with Bet365 in an 11 runner handicap, he could easily be involved at the finish and give us a big payday.
I therefore recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 33/1.