Antidote – 5.50 Newton Abbot – 2M 1F Handicap Hurdle – 40/1 Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
I put up Antidote last time up on his handicap debut, which was also his seasonal debut. He drifted badly that day and so probably wasn’t fit enough to do himself justice.
He also reportedly made a noise, so his breathing was an issue during the race. It’s therefore a good thing connections have added a tongue tie today.
Bryony, the Trainers daughter is having her only ride of the day on him, and we may well see a much more positive ride now he has had a race under his belt.
Antidote is very unexposed and has plenty of scope to win off this lowly mark and at 40/1 represents huge value in this mediocre race.
I therefore recommend 1 point each way with Bet365.
He is still value at 20/1.
Antidote – 2.40 Newton Abbot – 2M 1F Handicap Hurdle – 25/1 Bet365 – 1 point each way.
Jimmy Frost won this race in 2016 and hasn’t had another runner in the race since. Today he sends Antidote for his handicap debut, and he looks to have a decent chance after just three runs in maiden hurdles.
He ran on the flat without success and only peaked at a mark of 55, but on his maiden debut he ran promisingly, jumping well and was not knocked about at the end of the race postmarking 91. The other runners around him that day are now rated 10lb higher so you feel Antidote could at least match that increase.
He was then pulled up on heavy ground, but that ground didn’t suit him (he was a non-runner due to unsuitable soft ground when on the flat). On his last novice hurdle start he ran satisfactorily with a claimer on board, which set his handicap mark at 89.
The big pointer about finding Jimmy Frosts winners is having his daughter Bryony Frost on board, and Bryony comes here for her only ride on Antidote.
The faster ground will be ideal for him and certainly has scope off this mark to be involved.
At 25/1 in this 8 runner evet we get 3 places and I therefore recommend 1 point each way with Bet365.
He is still value at 14/1.
Humanitarian – 3.35 York – 1m 6f Ebor Handicap – 12/1 Skybet – 8 places – 1 Point Each Way.
The Ebor Handicap has a rich tradition of being one of the most valuable races in the calendar and it’s won more often than not by a an unexposed horse that goes onto be Group class.
There are a few horses in the field that fit the profile, but non more so than John Gosden’s Humanitarian.
John Gosden is a master of bringing his older horses through these valuable handicaps to victory and in Humanitarian we have a horse that finished 7th in the 2019 Derby on just his 4th start.
He is now 5 but has only raced twice since so is still very unexposed. He flopped behind Japan in the Group 2 King Edward 7th at Royal Ascot and was then gelded over the winter before winning on his seasonal debut last year in a strong Class 2 Newbury 1m 4F handicap off a mark of 102.
He showed an admiral will to win against a fellow progressive horse in Dubai Future who went on to win at the Meydan Festival going up 11lb in the handicap to 112.
Humanitarian was only raised 4lb for that win so still looks well handicapped off 106 and the way he outstayed his rival bodes well for his chances to stay the extra 2F.
With him making his seasonal debut today Gosden has clearly laid Humanitarian out for this and bearing in mind he has won on his seasonal debut before this looks a rock solid route to victory with him.
We can get a very fair 12/1 with Skybet who offer 8 places and that looks a good each way play in this deep handicap.
I therefore recommend 1 point each way.
He is still value at 8/1.
Trouble and Strife – 1.45 Killarney – 2m 4F Handicap – 14/1 Boyles – 5 Places – 1 Point Each Way.
I put up Trouble and Strife on 12 August and he was a non-runner.
He runs today back at Killarney where he finished a staying on 4th over course and distance and has an obvious chance at very fair odds of 14/1.
Please read my previous write up for more info.
My only fear is the thunderstorms which are highly unpredictable that may ruin his chances.
Connections have pulled him out in the past if too much rain falls, so the same safeguard applies here.
I recommend 1 point each way with Boyles who offer 5 places.
He is still value at 10/1.
Trouble and Strife – 7.45 Tramore – 2M 4F Handicap – 12/1 Skybet – 5 Places – 1 Point Each Way
This is your usual competitive Irish handicap hurdle.
Many have chances, but the one I like who has been threatening to win one of these big handicaps is Trouble and Strife.
He was originally trained on the flat by Sir Mark Prescott and was one of his classic staying horses who ran over short trips as a two year old before stepping up to more suitable middle distance and staying trips. He won three races and peaked at a decent 88 postmark.
The one big thing I took from his flat form was his need for good ground.
He was sold onto Irish connections who ran him over inadequate 2 miles and soft ground to get his handicap mark of 98 and I really thought he would go on and win multiple hurdle races over 2m 4F and 3 miles, but as yet he has only managed a second.
This season connections started him over 2 miles and then gave him a flat race before it looked like they meant business when they stepped him up to 2m 4F, put the tongue and cheekpieces back on that he wore when coming second. He opened at 9/2 in a 17 runner handicap but drifted out to 9/1 before finishing a staying on 4th.
That was a decent run, and the handicapper has dropped him another pound to 89 and I like they have now brought in the highly promising 7lb claimer Jack Foley. Remember his name as I have been very impressed with him. He is excellent at race riding and has already won plenty of big handicaps, he seems to judge the pace of the race extremely well and positions his horses to pounce in the home straight. This is exactly the ride we need today.
With his 7lb claim Trouble and Strife runs off just 82 and he must be in with a big chance. My one concern is the 2m 4F trip as I would ideally have run him over 2m 6F or 3 miles.
He will certainly be running on at the end of the race and that’s why I’m keen to put him up with Skybet who go 12/1 and 5 places.
He is still value at 8/1.