With one non runner yesterday we only had Prince Khurram run for us and he almost nicked a place. He was still travelling well half a mile out and I thought we were in with a good chance, but he seemed to blow up and couldn't run on. There is definitely still a race in him.
Dono Di Dio – 8.00 Kempton – 1m 4F Handicap – 16/1 Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
Don Di Dio is a real course specialist around Kempton over 1m 4F, with three wins off marks between 68 and 76, plus a further 6 places from just 18 starts. That’s a 50% place rate.
He has run three times this summer, twice on turf and once at Kempton over 2 miles and I very much feel these were runs to get him fit and at the same time get his handicap mark down a bit.
I say this as Dono Di Dio is one of those horses that has a distinct ceiling off which he can win, that being 76. He was up to 81 over the winter after winning over todays course and distance and could only place so it’s made sense for connections to bring him along slowly this summer and keep him away from Kempton’s 1m 4F trip.
He now returns to his favourite course and distance off an ideal mark of 68 with good claimer S Cherchi who has won on him before, who also takes off a valuable 5lb netting his mark down to 63.
Dono has a perfect draw in stall 4, and whilst I’m worried about the unexposed three year olds in the field they don’t have proven form over todays track and trip.
At 16/1 with Bet365 he looks a brilliant each way play, and I recommend 1 point each way.
He still looks value at 8/1.
Harswell Prince – 4.20 Musselburgh – 5F Handicap – 14/1 Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
Harswell Prince’s trainer, Liam Bailey, has won 8 races from 71 starts over the last 5 years at Musselburgh, but what is very striking about his stats are that 4 of these wins have been with Daniel Tudhope in the saddle from only 11 rides.
This makes Harswell very interesting today, especially at odds of 14/1 in this 8 runner field.
When you arrow into Harswell Prince’s form he has won off a mark of 61 with Daniel Tudhope riding, this was when he had first time cheekpieces. Well today he is running for the first time after a gelding operation and these ops either bring the horse forward or knocking them for six.
We don’t know which way he will run but he gets in here off a mark of 58 which is 3lb below his last winning mark and with the best adjusted course ratings he should be a lot shorter in the market.
I’m therefore recommending we go 1 point each way with Bet365.
He is still value at 10/1.
Guardia Svizzera – 3.30 Catterick – 6F Handicap – 66/1 Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
This race has quite a lobsided look to the market which is dominated by the in-form Ann Duffield horse, Quercus, who is currently 6/4 (from 5/4).
I know he has won his last two races, but his latest was by a fast diminishing neck on good to firm going.
He carries a 5lb penalty, but what’s more important is the good to soft ground which is not in his favour. He has been pulled out twice before on soft ground, so he must be vulnerable today. I can see him being a massive drifter but what that does do is give us huge value on the winner!
The rest of the field are either running very averagely or out of form, so to me this looks like a very winnable race for an outsider.
I like the look of Guardia Svizzera who sits at 66/1 in the market. Catterick is a sharp left handed track, and many don’t act around it, but Guardia has won over course and distance off a mark of 66 back in August 2018 and today he runs off the basement mark of 45.
Guardia Svizzera was previously rated as high as 82 but has regressed over the last two years. He has only run four times this year. On his second start (in May 2021) he did show fair form finishing 3rd of 15 off a mark of 46, before flopping on his next start. He was given two months off after that which indicates he had a small health issue.
He returned recently with another average run but coming from a small trainer he probably needed it and I’m expecting an improved run on his second start after his mini break (as he produced earlier this season).
The ground is a positive for our pick who has run 7 times on good to soft, winning twice and placing twice.
The trainer, Alan Brown, has had two runners in the last 14 days and both have placed, so he seems to have his string in good order (this included Jem’s Bond who recently finished second for us).
At 66/1 in this 9 runner field we are getting massive value and I’m recommending 1 point each way with Bet365 BOG.
He still looks value at 20/1.
