Please see my three tips for Saturday:
Thimblewood – 3.25 Cartmel – 2m 6F Handicap Hurdle – 25/1 Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
This Irish raider is trained by Noel Kelly who only has a 3% strike rate in Ireland (with 13.78% placing), but there racing is so competitive and with big fields it’s no real surprise for this small trainer. However when he brings his horses over to the UK that strike rate increases to a fair 14% of winners and 33% of horses place.
Today he brings over Thimblewood who was decent on the flat for Ralph Beckett hitting a handicap high of 87 over 1m2-1m4F. His 9 jumps races haven’t been so successful where he remains winless.
However that only tells half the story. He won twice as a three year old on good to firm ground and I think fast ground is a must for this horse and he just hasn’t had it racing on Ireland’s predominant soft/heavy ground.
Because of this his jumps handicap is only 93 and when you consider his flat ‘engine’ he looks really well handicapped when conditions suit, especially now he has a fair amount of jumping experience.
He was being campaigned over 2m – 2m4F, but on his last run, when he first ventured over to the UK, he was stepped up to 3m 2F and ran in a race which was won by his well backed stable companion, so that really was just giving the horse a run over a trip that was just too far for him and was never supposed to win.
Today is a different story, he has been brought back in trip to an ideal 2m 6F and gets good summer ground that he will relish.
The other big factor in his favour is Cartmel. This is a unique test as it is pretty flat and left handed but has the least amount of hurdles to jump and the longest run in anywhere in the UK and Ireland. This really suits ex-flat horses where emphasis is less on jumping but more on flat speed.
This is only a 6 runner field, and we can still get 25/1 on Thimblewood. The only down side is we can only get the two places, but at quarter of the odds that’s 5.25 points profit just to place which is huge.
I am therefore recommending 1 point each way with Bet365 who are always best odds guaranteed.
He is still value at 10/1.
Tyrells Success – 5.15 Cartmel – 3m 1.5F Handicap Chase – 50/1 Bet365 – 1 Point Each Way.
This is another Noel Kelly horse who sits as the outsider in the field at 50/1. I know Noel has brought 4 horses over today and that one is an even money shot, but are we to believe he is spending all that money to bring his 4 horses over just for one to have a big chance with the others no hopers? I think not!
Let’s get the bad news out there first, this is a chase race and Tyrells Success isn’t the most natural of jumpers and is yet to win a chase in 15 attempts.
He has also fallen twice, the second of these was this season on his second start. His confidence was clearly knocked as he was pulled up on his next start after hitting the 4th.
This really isn’t reading well so far, but this is where we can talk about the positives, as I have previously said Cartmel has the fewest fences per circuit of any course, so jumping is not so critical. This was realised last time out where Tyrell’s ran over today’s course and distance and was still in with a shout coming to the last (3 lengths off the leaders with almost half a mile still to travel) but then clouted it and almost unseated his rider and could not recover. He wasn’t beaten
far
That was off a mark of 95 and today he drops a further 2lb, which all helps! But what is going to help even more are the re-application of cheekpieces. These help a horse focus but also jump better. During his last race he was also wandering about before each fence and racing awkwardly for the jockey. This should all improve with cheekpieces and hence gives him a real chance here today.
Tyrells used to wear cheekpieces, but today is the first time this season they have been applied and it makes sense that the trainer is trying everything to get a good performance out of him in an 8 runner race which is the easiest task he has faced in his chasing career.
The jumping is a big issue but at juicy odds of 50/1 if the horse can improve for the cheekpieces and just navigate his way round he is definitely well enough handicapped to win this.
Bearing in mind his trainer has a 33% place rate with his horses in the UK and this is only an 8 runner race (we can get 3 places) hopefully worst case he can place and give us a 9/1 place pick up, with massive upside if he can win!
I therefore recommend 1 point each way with Bet365.
He is still value at 20/1.
Trump Card – 4.50 Navan – 1m 6F Handicap – 40/1 Skybet – 6 places – 1 point each way.
Trump Card has won three races in life, with two of them at Navan over this trip. They were off marks of 59 and 67 and today he gets in here off a lowly 54 with his favourite winning jockey W J Lee in the plate.
Everything looks good for him today with the ground as he would want from a middle draw in stall 9.
He is priced up at 40/1 as he has only beaten 1 rival in his last two starts. This isn’t good, but we only have to forgive him his latest bad run as two starts ago was a really weird race. Two horses went 20 lengths clear, and the remainder sat off the pace for too long and misjudged the race completely. Trump Card was lobbing along at the head of the ‘peloton’ but when the race was obviously lost in the home straight the jockey eased him losing by far further than he should have done.
Trump Card is back at his favourite track and off the lowest mark he has been for quite some time. We do need him to bounce back to form and that’s more likely to happen at today’s track under his ideal conditions and favourite jockey.
I’m therefore recommending 1 point each way with Skybet who are offering 6 places.
He still looks value at 20/1.