Cheltenham Day 1 - Betting Guide, Key Trends & Expert Predictions

Published: Tue, 03/11/25

Updated: Tue, 03/11/25

Cheltenham Day 1 - Betting Guide, Key Trends & Expert Predictions

Just to quickly point out - some of the predictions will seem blindingly obvious, Stats & Trends along with confirmed runners fed to ai to generate you the full previews, as per the stats & trends.

13:20 – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

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🔥 Best Trend Fit: Kopek Des Bordes

✅ Rated 157 (above key benchmark)
✅ Trained by W P Mullins
✅ Ideal age and profile
✅ Proven at Grade 1 level

✅ Romeo Coolio (7/1)

✅ 6 years old (ideal age)
✅ Rated 148 (solid)
✅ Trained by Gordon Elliott (Irish dominance)
✅ Strong prep run in a Grade 1
💪 Verdict: Strong contender at decent value.

✅ Summary:

Kopek Des Bordes is the standout selection and fits all major trends.
Romeo Coolio looks like the strongest challenger.
Irish dominance is likely to continue — focus on Mullins and Elliott runners.

14:00 - Arkle Chase

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🔥 Best Trend Fit: Majborough

✅ Rated above the key 151 benchmark
✅ Trained by W P Mullins
✅ Age and form match winning profile
✅ Short-priced favourite — history favours odds-on favourites

✅ L’Eau du Sud (9/2)

✅ 7 years old (within ideal age range)
✅ Rated 156 (competitive)
✅ Trained by Dan Skelton (high strike rate at Cheltenham)
✅ Strong form over fences and improving

💪 Verdict: Strong second-favourite and capable of challenging Majborough if the favourite underperforms.

✅ Summary:

Majborough is the standout selection — unbeaten and well clear on ratings.
L’Eau du Sud is the main danger, especially if the ground turns soft.
With Mullins’ dominance in this race, the favourite looks tough to oppose.

14:40 Ultima Handicap Chase

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🔥 Best Trend Fit: The Changing Man

✅ Second-season chaser
✅ Strong Cheltenham form
✅ Winning profile fits the key trends

✅ Katate Dori (17/2)

✅ 7 years old (ideal age)
✅ Rated 137 (potentially well-handicapped)
✅ Second-season chaser
✅ Solid RPR (160) – marks him out as one of the strongest stayers

💪 Verdict: Great value at current price – a novice with ideal stamina and improvement potential.

✅ Crebilly (10/1)

✅ Trained by Jonjo O'Neill (3 Ultima wins)
✅ Progressive handicap mark
✅ 8 years old (within key age range)
✅ Strong staying form over 3 miles+

💪 Verdict: Strong Festival pedigree – Jonjo O’Neill knows how to win this race.

🚫 Runners to Avoid:

❌ Irish-Trained Horses: 0 winners from 46 runners since 2006 – tough for them to break the trend.
❌ Older Horses: Only one winner aged 10+ since 2010 – prefer 7-8 year-olds.
❌ Fallers Last Time Out: Corach Rambler (2022) was the first winner off a U/F/P since 1997.

✅ Summary:

The Changing Man is the most solid option – age, rating, and trainer profile all ideal.
Katate Dori is the value play – second-season chaser with big upside.
Crebilly offers class and experience – ideal for a competitive handicap like this.

15:20 Mares Hurdle

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🔥 Best Trend Fit: Lossiemouth

✅ Top-rated mare (160)
✅ Defending champion
✅ Proven Festival form

✅ Jade De Grugy (5/1)

✅ Willie Mullins' second string
✅ Progressive with a Grade 1 win under her belt
✅ Proven over the trip
✅ Top Irish jockey booking in Danny Mullins

💪 Verdict: The most credible threat to Lossiemouth – solid Cheltenham record.

✅ July Flower (12/1)

✅ Trained by Henry de Bromhead (trained Honeysuckle)
✅ Excellent Festival record
✅ Strong staying form over 2m 4f+

💪 Verdict: Represents strong value for an each-way bet.

🚫 Runners to Avoid:

❌ Queens Gamble – Unlikely to match the class of the top Irish mares.
❌ Gala Marceau – Out of form and unlikely to trouble the front-runners.
❌ Casa No Mento – Lowly rated and out of depth in this company.

✅ Summary:

Lossiemouth is the clear favourite and sets the standard for the race.
Jade De Grugy is the value play, improving fast and trained by the master, Willie Mullins.
July Flower offers excellent each-way value at 12/1 with Graded staying form.

16:00 Champion Hurdle

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🔥 Best Trend Fit: Constitution Hill

✅ Defending champion.
✅ Unbeaten this season.
✅ Won a Grade 1 last time out.
✅ Trained by Nicky Henderson.

✅ Brighterdaysahead (9/4)

✅ Progressive 6-year-old.
✅ Top RPR of 176 — higher than Constitution Hill.
✅ Unbeaten this season.
✅ Gordon Elliott’s best hope of a first Champion Hurdle win.

💪 Verdict: The most likely horse to upset Constitution Hill — if there’s a chink in the champion’s armour, Brighterdaysahead will expose it.

✅ State Man (9/1)

✅ Runner-up to Constitution Hill last year.
✅ Irish Champion Hurdle winner.
✅ Top-class form against the best Irish opposition.
✅ Trained by Willie Mullins — 4 Champion Hurdle wins.

💪 Verdict: State Man is a rock-solid each-way option and could capitalise if Constitution Hill or Brighterdaysahead underperform.

🚫 Runners to Avoid:

❌ Golden Ace – Outclassed based on OR and RPR.
❌ Burdett Road – A 5-year-old, and only two 5-year-olds have won this in the last 30 years.
❌ Winter Fog – An 11-year-old, far too old to match the younger stars.
❌ King of Kingsfield – No Grade 1 form; unlikely to compete at this level.

16:40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

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🔥 Best Trend Fit: Stencil

✅ Strong juvenile form.
✅ Trained in Ireland.
✅ Unexposed and progressive.
✅ Ran well in graded trials.

✅ Total Look (6/1)

✅ Trained by Gavin Cromwell — known for targeting this race.
✅ Unexposed and improving rapidly.
✅ Strong form in graded juvenile races.

💪 Verdict: A clear threat if the ground is soft.

✅ Beyond Your Dreams (7/1)

✅ Trained by Joseph O'Brien — has won this race twice.
✅ Strong RPR and ideal BHA mark.
✅ Lightly raced but well regarded.

💪 Verdict: Looks a likely improver on the day.

✅ Puturhandstogether (10/1)

✅ Trained by Joseph O'Brien — proven trainer in this race.
✅ Won last time out over hurdles.
✅ Strong form in Irish juvenile contests.

💪 Verdict: Could improve further with Festival conditions.

✅ Murcia (12/1)

✅ Trained by Willie Mullins — desperate to win this race.
✅ Solid form in novice hurdles.
✅ Good RPR and ideal BHA mark.

💪 Verdict: Mullins' best chance of finally breaking his Fred Winter hoodoo.

💰 Each-Way Value

➡️ Beyond Your Dreams (7/1) – Proven Joseph O’Brien horse, strong form.
➡️ Murcia (12/1) – Willie Mullins runner in great form.
➡️ Stencil (11/2) – Strong recent form and improving.

🚫 Runners to Avoid:

❌ Sony Bill – Paul Townend onboard, but no Grade 1 form.
❌ Quantock Hills – High weight, low RPR — unlikely to figure.
❌ Static – Recent fall and poor jumping record — tough to back.
❌ Wendrock – Outclassed based on ratings and form.

17:20 National Hunt Chase

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🔥 Best Trend Fit: Sa Majeste

✅ Fits all major trends (age, rating, trainer, experience).
✅ Trained by Willie Mullins — dominant in this race.
✅ Strong each-way value at 10/1.ATS AND PREVIEW HERE

✅ Now Is The Hour (9/2)

✅ Rated 139 (slightly below the 142+ benchmark but competitive).
✅ 8 years old — slightly older than the ideal profile but still within the winning range.
✅ Strong form over 3 miles.
✅ Proven stamina and jumping ability.
❌ Trainer not among the dominant Irish yards.

💪 Verdict: Strong contender, but ideally would be rated 142+.

✅ Haiti Couleurs (9/2)

✅ Rated 135 (slightly below the historical benchmark).
✅ Proven over 3m+ — stamina guaranteed.
✅ Strong jumping form.
❌ Trainer lacks a strong Cheltenham Festival record.

💪 Verdict: Each-way chance, but needs to improve to match the Irish runners.

✅ Transmission (5/1)

✅ Rated 133 (borderline rating but acceptable).
✅ Proven over 3m+.
✅ Trained by Neil Mulholland — not a dominant name but respected.
✅ Patrick Mullins rides — huge positive.

💪 Verdict: Could run well, but trends suggest others are stronger.

✅ Captain Cody (15/2)

✅ Trained by Willie Mullins — big positive.
✅ 7 years old — ideal age.
✅ Rated 140 — slightly below the benchmark but close enough.
❌ Stamina over extended trip needs to be proven.

💪 Verdict: Big player with a top trainer, but stamina is a question mark.

💰 Each-Way Value

➡️ Captain Cody (15/2) – Trained by W P Mullins, strong profile.
➡️ Sa Majeste (10/1) – Ideal trends fit, Mullins factor.
➡️ Transmission (5/1) – Proven stamina and Mullins booking adds appeal.

🚫 Runners to Avoid:

❌ Gericault Roque – High weight, inconsistent form.
❌ Duffle Coat – Rated too high, poor recent form.
❌ Kyntara – Low rating and limited chase experience.
❌ Stuzzikini – Beaten last time out, inconsistent.

Until next time,

Ben

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