🐎 Aintree Festival – Day Two Preview (Friday, 4th April 2025)

After a thrilling opener, Day Two of the Aintree Festival steps up a gear with a stacked card of Grade 1 action, big-field handicaps, and serious National fences. 

We’ve got the Top Novices’ Hurdle, the ever-competitive Topham Chase over the National course, and a cracking renewal of the Melling Chase—plus potential stars emerging in the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle to close the day.

With drying ground, fresh trends, and Festival form under the microscope, it’s a day where timing, tactics, and toughness could make all the difference. 

Let’s dive into the stats and shape up the shortlist.

🏆 1:45 Aintree – Mildmay Novices’ Chase (Grade 1, 3m1f)

📺 ITV | £100,000 prize | Championship-level novice chase over staying trip

🔍 Key Stats Trends:

✅ 21/21 winners returned 10/1 or shorter

✅ 18/21 were aged 6 or 7

✅ 86% raced at Cheltenham Festival that season

✅ 92% had run in 4+ chases

✅ 88% had won 2+ chases

❌ No British-bred winner since 2002

✅ Irish or French bred always win

✅ Nicholls & Henderson: 9 wins combined in last 21

❌ 5 of last 6 Brown Advisory winners were beaten here

🔮 Top 3 Trends Picks:

🥇 Handstands (6yo, Ben Pauling)

✅ Age 6 | ✅ Irish-bred | ✅ 3 wins from last 3 | ✅ Top on RPR (168)
Didn’t go to Cheltenham – fresh and has pace + staying power.
Beat what was in front of him and comes in unbeaten over fences.
🧠 Ticks 10/10 trends boxes, and unlike others, brings momentum not recovery.

🥈 Stellar Story (8yo, Gordon Elliott)

Runner-up in Brown Advisory – solid stamina and class.
✅ Festival form – huge trend booster
❌ Age (8) a slight negative
Still, this is probably his race to win if it turns into a stamina test.
💡 Each-way angle at value.

🥉 Caldwell Potter (7yo, Paul Nicholls)

Strong front-running effort at Cheltenham before being outgunned.
✅ Nicholls record here is excellent
✅ French-bred | ✅ Right age | ✅ Festival form
Could go well if allowed to dominate—but not bulletproof under pressure.

⚠️ Also Consider:

Quai De Bourbon – Unseated at Cheltenham but looks a chaser to follow next year; might still be learning.

The Changing Man – Big run in the Cheltenham handicap; not quite top-level Grade 1 class but always tries.

Dancing City – Smart over hurdles and early promise over fences; ground/trip fine but Cheltenham flop lingers.

❌ To Oppose (Based on Stats)

Don’t Rightly Know (10yo) – 10 is far too old for this race historically. Still unbeaten, but form needs a leap.

Jordans – Lacks stamina credentials and has not shown enough to suggest he’s up to Grade 1 standard.

📝 Verdict:

🏆 WIN – Handstands
The strongest trends pick, peaking at the right time, and very likeable chasing style.

🥈 VALUE – Stellar Story
Stays forever, Brown Advisory runner-up, and a proven battler.

💣 LURKING – Caldwell Potter
Classy, Nicholls-trained, and could grab the rail and set the tone.

🏇 2:20 Aintree – William Hill Handicap Hurdle (2m4f, Class 1 Premier Handicap)

📺 ITV | Big-field cavalry charge with Coral Cup form lines and improvers colliding

📊 Key Stats & Trends (last 11 years):

✅ 10/11 had 2–4 hurdle wins

✅ 9/11 aged 8 or younger

✅ 8/11 carried 11st 2lb or less

✅ 8/11 were Irish bred

✅ 8/11 rated 133–137

✅ 8/11 returned 10/1 or shorter

✅ 8/11 were unplaced last time

❌ Only 2/11 outright favourites won

✅ 3/11 trained by Nicky Henderson, 2/11 by Dan Skelton

✅ Irish have won 3 of the last 5

This is a race for progressive types who might’ve underperformed in deeper fields at Cheltenham.

🔮 Top 4 Shortlist (based on form + trends):

🥇 Be Aware (6yo, Dan Skelton)

✅ Age | ✅ Carried 11-6 | ✅ Ran in Coral Cup (outstayed)
Trained by Skelton, who’s won 2 of last 3 renewals
Now back on a sharper track, likely to travel better
🔥 NAP selection from Racing Post and trends fit beautifully.
📈 Looks tailor-made for this, with strong trainer confidence.

🥈 Wade Out (6yo, Olly Murphy)

✅ Age 6 | ✅ Irish bred | ✅ 11st or under
5 wins in 7 runs – classic profile for this race
Will love strong pace and has a relentless finish
Didn’t go to Cheltenham – freshness edge
💡 On a roll, and you feel there's more to come.

🥉 Listentoyourheart (6yo, Dan Skelton)

✅ Lightly raced mare (3 wins from 5)
Down in weight, consistent and bred to stay
Yard has options here, but this one could be well-in
📈 Sneaky value, especially with a claim.

🧨 Wellington Arch (6yo, Jonjo O’Neill)

✅ Form: 21212 over hurdles – tough and consistent
✅ 10st 6 | ✅ Irish bred | ✅ Age 6
Could fly under the radar but fits the historical trends well
📉 Weakness in betting suggests outsiders could crash in.

❌ Runners to Oppose:

Impose Toi – classy but 12st and poor record for topweights

Kopeck De Mee – flopped last time, unproven at this level

Beacon Edge / Minella Missile – exposed & too high in weight

Off The Jury – admirable but still a maiden

📝 Verdict:

🏆 Win – Be Aware (trainer target, stats dream, form forgiven)

💣 Danger – Wade Out (progressive and unexposed)

📈 Each-way Value – Listentoyourheart / Wellington Arch

🏇 2:55pm Aintree – TrustATrader Top Novices’ Hurdle (2m½f, Grade 1)

📺 ITV | Supreme Novices' form takes centre stage in this fast-run 2m contest

📊 Key Stats & Trends (last 21 runnings):

✅ 20/21 ran within 31 days

✅ 14/21 returned 7/1 or shorter

✅ 13/21 1st or 2nd last time out

✅ 12/21 ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

✅ 10/21 were 5yo (22 of last 25 were 5 or 6)

✅ 7/21 winning favourites

✅ 6/14 won by Nicky Henderson

✅ 11/12 had run in a bumper

✅ JP McManus-owned horses won last 3

❌ Just 6 Irish winners in 47 years (though 4 in the last 5!)

🔍 Shortlist Based on Trends + Form

🥇 ROMEO COOLIO (6yo, Gordon Elliott)

✅ 3rd in the Supreme Novices’ – best form in the field
✅ Returned within 24 days
✅ Aged 6, experienced in bumpers
✅ Strong form line: beat horses reopposing today
✅ Irish won 4 of last 5 renewals
🔥 Ticks almost every major trend and sets the standard
💡 Supreme runner-up/winner has won 6 of last 7 editions if they turn up
🎯 Most likely winner

🥈 TRIPOLI FLYER (6yo, Fergal O'Brien)

✅ 3 straight wins before this
✅ 2nd in a bumper last spring, so has grounding
✅ Front-runner with staying power – should be suited to Aintree
📉 Jumping is still a bit ropey, but form line is sharp
⚠️ No Cheltenham run might be a positive – fresh

🥉 SALVATOR MUNDI (5yo, W.P. Mullins)

✅ 5th in the Supreme – strong effort behind Romeo Coolio
✅ Lightly raced, lots of improvement to come
✅ Big-trainer angle; likely Mullins #1 on jockey booking (Townend)
📈 Dangerous if things fall apart up front
⚠️ Just 1 win in 3 starts, but looks capable of reversing form

🧨 Each-Way & Value Mentions:

JET TO VEGAS – Continues to improve, but hasn’t clashed with elite types

DIVA LUNA – 3rd in the Mares Novices’ at Cheltenham, but drop in trip isn’t obvious plus this is a tougher mixed field

ROYAL INFANTRY – Wind op since flop, interesting back at a flat track

❌ To Oppose:

Karbau – Well beaten in the Supreme, and that’s a worry

Joltin N Jiving / Rubber Ball – Massive class leap required

Blues Singer – Too inexperienced, likely outpaced

📝 Verdict:

🏆 Win – Romeo Coolio (proven Supreme performer, strong trends, top yard)

⚔️ Danger – Tripoli Flyer (momentum horse with good ground suitability)

📈 Place Chance – Salvator Mundi (late finisher, best of the rest)

💣 Outsider to Watch – Royal Infantry (trainer fires bullets in this)

🏆 3:30pm Aintree – Melling Chase (Grade 1, 2m4f)

📺 ITV | Clash of Champion Chase & Ryanair formlines

📊 Key Trends (last 21 runnings):

✅ 18/21 ran within 30 days

✅ 18/21 ran in Champion Chase or Ryanair

✅ 18/21 were aged 9 or younger

✅ 17/21 ran at the Cheltenham Festival

✅ 14/21 finished in the top 3 last time

✅ 11/21 ran in the Champion Chase

✅ 11/21 were winning favourites

✅ 9/21 Irish-trained

✅ 25/33 winners had won or placed at the Grand National meeting previously

✅ 76% had already won over 2m4f

❌ Just one 6yo has won since 1988

✅ French-bred horses have dominated recently

🧠 Contenders Breakdown

🥇 JONBON (9yo, Nicky Henderson)

✅ Last year's winner, best RPR in the field
✅ 2nd in Champion Chase despite a bad blunder
✅ 3x Grade 1 winner over both 2m and 2m4f
✅ Strong Aintree record: 2 wins from 2
✅ French bred, top-rated
🎯 Ticks nearly every key trend, looks the one to beat
💡 Only negative? Aintree coming quickly after Cheltenham flop

Verdict: 🔥 The one they have to beat again – conditions perfect.

🥈 EL FABIOLO (8yo, W.P. Mullins)

✅ 2nd in the Ryanair (Grade 1)
✅ Top-class on his day, but...
❌ Form has dipped slightly this season
❌ Question marks on jumping & peak ability
✅ Trainer has won this before (though not often)
✅ Also French bred

Verdict: 🚨 Capable of brilliance, but not bombproof right now. Solid place chance.

🥉 PROTEKTORAT (10yo, Dan Skelton)

✅ 3rd in this race last year
✅ Strong record at Aintree (won the 2022 Many Clouds)
✅ Good prep win at Lingfield in January
❌ Now 10yo – age not on his side
❌ Beaten 15L in Ryanair
✅ Ground/trip suits

Verdict: 💼 Reliable and battle-tested, but may just lack the spark to win.

📝 Final Verdict:

🏆 Win – Jonbon (Class, course, trends all in his favour – hard to oppose)

🥈 Place – El Fabiolo (Bounces back? Danger if sharp)

🧠 Topham Chase (Premier Handicap) – Trends Summary:

✅ 18/21 ran within the last 34 days

✅ 19/21 aged 10 or younger

✅ 14/21 returned double-figure odds

✅ 12/21 carried 10st 7lb or less

✅ 17/21 did not win last time out

✅ 11/21 were unplaced LTO

✅ No winning favourite in the last 10

✅ Only 5 Irish-trained winners since 1979

✅ 12/20 had raced over the National fences

✅ Henderson, Mullins & Tizzard: 7 of last 11 winners

🔎 Shortlist Based on Trends + Form:

🥇 LATENIGHTPASS (12yo, T Ellis – Jack Andrews, 11-0)

✅ Grand National fences expert (multiple wins)
✅ Excellent 2nd in the Cheltenham Cross Country
✅ Right weight range & solid RPRs
✅ Trained for this and knows every inch of the track
❌ 12 years old — not ideal on the trends, but a course specialist

🧠 Verdict: Rock-solid each-way pick – proven over these fences, conditions ideal.

🥈 JAMES DU BERLAIS (9yo, W. Mullins – J.J. Slevin, 11-8)

✅ 2nd in this race last year off just 1lb lower
✅ Laid out for this again
✅ Classy in France and Ireland
❌ Can flatter to deceive, but clearly targeted again

🧠 Verdict: Big danger if in the same form – serious each-way claims.

🥉 BAD (6yo, Ben Pauling – Ben Jones, 10-10)

✅ Back-to-back wins since blinkers applied
✅ 6yo is rare but improving fast
✅ Travelled strongly at Kempton; could love this unique test
❌ Very inexperienced over fences, never tackled GN fences

🧠 Verdict: Dark horse – strong traveller with upside, but jumping will be tested.

🔄 Others of Note:

🟡 EXCELLO – Well treated; ran with credit last time; Nicky Henderson knows how to prep for this

🟡 THE GOFFER – Ran in Cross Country; Gordon Elliott plots well, solid mid-pack profile

🟡 MARBLE SANDS – Good second-season chaser; still open to improvement; good EW shout

🔴 BLUE LORD – Classy, but hasn’t delivered this term. Could be a ‘class drop’ play.

📝 Final Verdict:

🏆 Win: LATENIGHTPASS (Course form, love of fences, and recent Cross Country effort scream big run)

💼 Each-Way: JAMES DU BERLAIS (Runner-up in this last year – rock solid profile)

💣 Wild Card: BAD (Big engine, progressive, dangerous if he jumps cleanly)

📊 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle – Key Trends:

✅ 15/17 winners aged 6 or 7

✅ 16/24 hadn’t run at Cheltenham Festival

✅ 18/21 ran within the last 35 days

✅ 24/28 had won at least twice over hurdles

✅ 15/30 had already won over 2m7f+

✅ Only 5/21 winning favourites

✅ Nicky Henderson & Lucinda Russell: 5 wins in last 10

✅ Irish-trained: only 2 wins in 21 runnings

🔎 Shortlist Based on Trends + Form:

🥇 CALIFET EN VOL (6yo, Nicky Henderson – Nico de Boinville)

✅ 3 wins from last 4
✅ 2m3f Listed winner and expected to stay the trip
✅ Henderson target horse (won 3 of last 10 Seftons)
✅ Still improving
✅ Strong RPRs – 144 latest
❌ Yet to run beyond 2m3f

🧠 Verdict: Stamina is a question, but class is not. If he stays, he could boss this.

🥈 BATTLE BORN LAD (6yo, Mark Walford – Jamie Hamilton)

✅ Unbeaten over 3m – made all in Haydock Grade 2
✅ Improving with every run
✅ Ticks distance, age, profile boxes
✅ Double-figure price

🧠 Verdict: Could steal it from the front again – dangerous if left alone up front.

🥉 MOON ROCKET (5yo, Kim Bailey – Tom Bellamy)

✅ 2nd in two 3m Grade 2s
✅ Unlucky last time when short of room
✅ Cheekpieces could sharpen him
✅ Likely to relish this test

🧠 Verdict: Solid each-way play – battle-hardened over this trip already.

🔄 Others to Note:

🔵 MISTER MEGGIT – Hugely impressive debut, but untested over trip and lacks experience

🔵 FAMILIAR DREAMS – Grade 3 winner but in a mares-only race; first open G1

🔵 ARGENTO BOY – Classy on a going day, but wildly inconsistent

🔵 JACOB’S LADDER – Tough stayer on soft, but needs to prove it on quicker ground

📝 Final Verdict:

🏆 Win: CALIFET EN VOL (Classy and unexposed – Henderson excels in this)

💼 Each-Way: BATTLE BORN LAD (Proven stayer, solid profile, possible front-runner)

💣 Big Danger: MOON ROCKET (Strong-finishing type – wouldn’t surprise at all)